中国经济全要素生产率:基于真实经济的分析  

China Economy's Total Factors Productivity:an Analysis within a Basic RBC Model

作　　者：张立元 Zhang Liyuan(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《宁夏社会科学》2018年第5期96-106,共11页NingXia Social Sciences

摘　　要：很多文献在测算全要素生产率时存在三点不足,忽视了人力资本和预算约束中消费数量的作用,而时不变参数的使用高估了测算结果及其增长率。为弥补上述不足,消费产出比作为一个参数引入真实经济周期模型,推导出适用于模型参数的约束方程,后对若干文献中物质资本产出弹性、折旧率和物质资本产出比在参数约束下的一致性进行检验。按照模型跨期效率条件推导得出的测算方程和基于参数约束的时变参数测算中国经济的全要素生产率水平与增长率。In existing research on measuring TFP,there is a negligence on human capital and consumption in budget constraint and the use of time invariant parameters tends to overestimate TFP and its growth rate.As an attempt to fix it up,the author first introduces the ratio of consumption to output into a basic RBC model by which constraint equations applied to parameters of the model are derived.The author performs a test on consistency among output elasticity of physical capital,depreciation rate and the ratio of physical capital to output provided by some papers under the constraints.The author employs the quality of human capital as the measure of TFP,and then obtains TFP data according to the equation originated from inter temporal efficient condition of the model and parameters based on above two constraint equations.

关 键 词：真实经济周期模型 人力资本 消费产出比 全要素生产率测算 

分 类 号：F064.1[经济管理—政治经济学]