人口名录库及其在人口普查中的应用  

Population Register-Based and Its Application in Census

作　　者：孟杰[1] 沈文静 MENG Jie;SHEN Wen-jing(China Economic Statistics Research Center,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学中国经济统计研究中心,天津300222

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2018年第10期90-97,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目<基于三系统估计量的中国普查年人口总数估计研究>(17CTJ002);全国统计科学研究项目<中国普查年人口总数的三系统估计量研究>(2017LZ30);重庆市社会科学规划重大委托项目<人口普查质量评估前沿理论研究>(2016WT03);国家自然科学基金面上项目<劣者淘汰两阶段自适应临床试验的设计和分析>(114711239)

摘　　要：在人口普查工作中更广泛地使用行政记录,不仅是中国国家统计局"十三五"时期统计改革发展规划纲要的重要内容,更是当前国外人口普查工作的前沿趋势。解析其它国家的可复制经验发现,人口普查中使用行政记录的关键在于如何充分利用不同来源的行政记录构造和应用人口名录库。为此,首先解析人口名录库的构造过程及其中的技术细节,如行政记录的选择、行政记录的统计化编辑以及多源行政记录的整合。其次,探究人口名录库应用于中国人口普查的思路和方法,包括普查年人口总数估计、无回答处理和完善普查住户地址信息等。The wider use of administrative records in census work is not only an important part of the reform and development plan of the National Statistical Office in the"13th Five-Year"period,but also a forefront of the current population census work.By analyzing the replicable experience of other countries,it is found that the key content is how to make full use of the administrative records from different sources to construct and apply population register.To this end,this paper first independently explores the structure of the population register and the technical details,such as selection,statistical editing and integrating of administrative records.Secondly,it puts forward the specific methods and ideas of applying the population register to the Chinese census,including the estimated total population of the census year,themissing data procedures and the improvement of household address information.The study of this paper not only contributes to the design and implementation of China's 2020 census and future demographic work,but also helps to promote China's basic theoretical research in the field of census.

关 键 词：人口名录库 人口普查 记录链接模型 三系统估计量 无回答 

分 类 号：C829[社会学—统计学]