纳入技术进步和税收的真实储蓄水平估算与启示——对2005年和2015年中国29个样本地区的比较分析  

Genuine Savings and Sustainable Development Capacity from the Perspective of National Balance Sheet: Estimation and Analysis Based on Technological Progress and Social Tax Cost of 29 Sampling Regions of China in 2005 and in 2015

作　　者：刘欢 LIU Huan(Graduate School,China Academy of Social Science,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《西部论坛》2018年第5期62-72,共11页West Forum

基　　金：中国社会科学院财政税收研究中心"中国政府资产负债表研究"系列研究成果之一

摘　　要：基于国家资产负债表,纳入技术进步和税收对中国29个地区的真实储蓄总量和人均水平进行估算,结果表明:2005和2015年各地区的真实储蓄总量和人均水平均为正且呈增长趋势,生产性资本的快速增长补偿了自然资源损耗,而人力资本的贡献较小;各地区真实储蓄水平存在较大差距且趋于扩大,生产性资本增量和技术进步贡献率的地区差异导致真实储蓄增量的地区差距扩大;纳入税收后各地区真实储蓄水平显著降低,税收对真实储蓄的负向影响完全抵消了技术进步的正向贡献。应积极推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化,提高投资总量并优化投资结构,强化技术进步对真实储蓄增长的贡献,弱化税收对真实储蓄增长的负效应,以促进各地区福利水平的可持续增长。Based on the perspective of the national balance sheet and considering the impact of technological progress and taxation factors,this paper uses the provincial panel data to estimate the genuine savings level in 29 regions of China in 2005 and in 2015.The study finds that the total genuine savings value and the per capita genuine savings value of all regions increase from 2005 to 2015.The rapid growth of productive capital fully compensates the loss of natural resource,which means that development is sustainable,however,the contribution of human capital is small.The real savings level of different regions has big difference and the difference trends to be expanded.The regional difference of productive capital increment and technological progress contribution rate causes the expanding of regional difference in real savings increment,after taxation,the real savings level of different regions is obviously lowering,therefore,the negative impact of the taxation on real savings level completely offsets the positive contribution of technological progress.We should actively promote the modernization of state governance system and governance capacity,improve investment and optimize the structure of investment,enforce the contribution of technological progress to real savings increase,weaken the negative effect of the taxation on real savings growth so as to boost sustainable increase of welfare level of different regions.

关 键 词：真实储蓄 技术进步 税收成本 生产性资本 自然资源 人力资本 国家资产负债表 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济] F812.42