基于组合预测的装甲装备器材需求确定  

Armored equipment material demand ascertaining based on forecast combination

作　　者：李浩 王铁宁 LI Hao;WANG Tiening(Equipment Support and Remanufacturing Department,Army Academy of Armored Forces,Beijing 100072,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军装甲兵学院装备保障与再制造系,北京100072

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2018年第10期2276-2281,共6页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：军队主要科研计划项目资助课题

摘　　要：为提高装甲装备器材需求预测的科学性,设计基于组合预测的器材需求确定方法。首先明确组合预测模型的构建流程与具体步骤,引入预测有效度理论,以评估模型的预测有效度。其次优化了关联面积法,实现组合预测模型中构成单元权重的动态配置,为模型滚动式更新及最终确定奠定基础。算例分析过程表明,基于组合模型的预测不仅能够提高局部器材需求预测的准确性,而且能够提升整体预测过程的稳定性。In order to improve the scientificity of material demand forecast for armored equipment,a material demand ascertaining method is designed based on forecast combination.First,make sure the establishment process and specific procedure of the forecast combination model,and introduce the forecasting efficiency theory,in order to assess the model’s forecasting efficiency.Then optimize the correlation area method,realizing the weight dynamic distribution of constitutional unit,and lay the foundation of rolling type updating and determining.With the process of example analysis,it indicates that the forecast combination model can not only improve the veracity of locality material demand forecasting,but also promote the stability of entirety forecasting process.

关 键 词：装甲装备 器材需求 组合预测 预测有效度 关联面积 

分 类 号：E917[军事]