混合不确定性下的结构可靠性分析方法  

Structural Reliability Analysis under Mixed Uncertainties

作　　者：肖宁聪 周成宁[2] 张成林 刘志亮 XIAO Ning-Cong;ZHOU Cheng-ning;ZHANG Cheng-lin;LIU Zhi-liang(State Key Laboratory of Advanced Design and Manufacturing for Vehicle Body,Hunan University Changsha 410082;School of Mechatronics Engineering,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Chengdu 611731;Shanghai Aerospace Equipment Manufacturer Minhang Shanghai 200245)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学汽车车身先进设计制造国家重点实验室,长沙410082 [2]电子科技大学机械电子工程学院,成都611731 [3]上海航天设备制造总厂,上海闵行区200245

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2018年第5期788-792,共5页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11602054;51537010);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2015M570675)

摘　　要：在工程实际中,部件或者系统的失效是由多失效模式引起的。针对变量和失效模式间复杂非线性相关问题,采用Copula函数进行建模。为了最大限度避免人为主观信息等带来的误差,利用最大熵方法分别近似极值响应的概率密度函数,在此基础上确定各自失效模式失效概率的最大和最小值。采用仿真和最大似然估计法相结合确定Copula函数中参数的最大和最小值。为了近似求解系统失效概率的最大和最小值,给出了相应的优化模型。算例分析表明该模型为混合不确定性及多失效模式相关下的结构可靠性分析提供新途径。Components or systems fails are usually caused by multiple failure models in practical engineering.Copula functions are used to model complicated nonlinear corrections between variables and failure modes.To avoid error from subjective hypothesis at utmost,maximum entropy approach is employed for approximating probability density functions of extreme value responses,and the lower and upper bounds of probability of failure can be determined according to the approximated probability density functions.Finally,both simulation and maximum likelihood estimation approaches are used for determining the lower and upper bounds of parameters in selected Copula functions.An optimization model is presented to calculate the lower and upper bounds of system probability of failure.Numerical example has demonstrated that the proposed method is available for structural systems with multiple failure modes under mixed uncertainties.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 最大熵 混合不确定性 多失效模式 结构可靠性 

分 类 号：TH114[机械工程—机械设计及理论]