基于风险态度因子的某滑坡治理方案优选研究  

Study on the Optimal Choice of Landslide Treatment Based on Risk Attitude Factor

作　　者：李寻昌[1] 叶君文 李葛[1,2] 闫成龙 赵海南 LI Xunchang;YE Junwen;LI Ge;YAN Chenglong;ZHAO Hainan(School of Geology Engineering and Geomatics,Chang an University,Xi an 710054,China;Shanxi Nuclear Industry Engineering Investigation Institute Limited Company,Xi an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安710054 [2]陕西核工业工程勘察院有限公司,西安710054

出　　处：《路基工程》2018年第5期17-23,共7页Subgrade Engineering

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(310826172203;310826161018);陕西省科技统筹创新工程计划项目(2016KTZDSF04-05-04)

摘　　要：滑坡是人类安全活动中常见的地质问题,而滑坡的防治也是灾害治理工程的热点问题。在滑坡治理中,若决策者选中了非优方案,不但达不到治理效果也将使成本增加。因此,在滑坡治理工程初步设计阶段选择最优治理方案显得尤为重要。为此,以延安滑坡在初设阶段提出的三种治理方案为基础,利用风险态度因子对这三种方案进行了优选研究,并对风险态度因子进行了敏感性分析。通过将区间数决策信息转化为点值决策信息,对多属性决策问题进行求解,进而对某滑坡治理实例的三种治理方案进行优选。通过实例说明该方法的可行性和有效性。Landslide is a common geological problem of the human security activities and the prevention and control of landslide is also a hot issue in disaster control.If a decision-maker chooses a non-optimal solution during the treatment,it not only does not reach the governance effect,it will also increase the cost.Therefore,it is very important to choose the optimal governance plan in the preliminary design stage of the landslide control projects.Three governance schemes were put forward in the preliminary design stage of Yan an landslide,which were optimized by risk attitude factor and the risk attitude factor was analyzed.By transforming interval number decision information into point value decision information,the multi-attribute decision problem is solved.And the three governance schemes for the example of landslide governance are optimized.The feasibility and effectiveness of this method are illustrated by examples.

关 键 词：滑坡治理 方案优选 多属性决策 决策矩阵 风险态度因子 

分 类 号：U416.163[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]