泉南高速公路柳南段事故黑点鉴别及组合因素影响分析  

Identification of Accident Black-spots in LIUNAN Section of Quanzhou—Nanning Highway and the Combinatorial Factors Analysis

作　　者：孙平[1] 黄建峰[1] SUN Ping;HUANG Jianfeng(CCCC Second Highway Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430056,China)

机构地区：[1]中交第二公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,武汉430056

出　　处：《路基工程》2018年第5期227-232,共6页Subgrade Engineering

摘　　要：针对泉南高速公路柳南段交通事故,采用累计频率法对道路黑点进行鉴别,曲线中累计频率大于95. 0%路段有12处,即为事故黑点(段)。结合贝叶斯定理,建立了道路联合概率分布模型,以泉南高速公路柳南段94. 1 km的184起交通事故数据,进行模型检验,结果表明:大雾天气时道路小半径平曲线处发生事故概率最大,约37. 3%;大雨天气时12∶00~18∶00时间段发生事故概率次之,约25. 7%,其中大部分事故发生在时间段12∶00~15∶00;晴天时大半径平曲线处发生事故概率最小,占事故总数约4. 5%。In relation to the traffic accidents happened in LIUNAN Section of Quanzhou-Nanning Highway,cumulative frequency method was used to identify the black-spots thereon.According to the curve,there were 12 segments with the cumulative frequency more than 95.0%,i.e.the accident black-spots(segments).Based on the Bias theory,the joint probability distribution model was established for the road,and then verified by the data about the 184 accidents happened in this 94.1 km LIUNAN Section.The result shows that,in case of heavy fog,the accident probability at small-radius horizontal curve is maximum,i.e.about 37.3%;in case of heave rain,the probability from 12∶00 to 18∶00 takes the second place,i.e.about 25.7%,wherein the most accidents happened in the period of 12∶00～15∶00;in case of sunshine fine,the probability at large-radius horizontal curve is minimum,accounted for about 4.5%of the total accidents.

关 键 词：泉南高速公路 交通事故黑点鉴别 累计频率法 组合因素分析 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]