三江平原典型灌区近58年降水量及其丰枯特征分析  

The Analysis on Characteristics of Annual Precipitation and Abundance Status for Typical Irrigation Area in Sanjiang Plain from 1959 to 2016

作　　者：邢贞相 张涵 纪毅 付强 李衡 宫兴龙 XING Zhen-xiang;ZHANG Han;JI Yi;FU Qiang;LI Heng;GONG Xing-long(School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;The Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Agricultural Water Resources of Ministry of Agriculture,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]农业部农业水资源高效利用重点实验室,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《沈阳农业大学学报》2018年第5期513-521,共9页Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0406004);国家自然科学基金项目(51109036);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(E2015024);教育部高等学校博士点新教师资助基金项目(20112325120009);黑龙江省领军人才梯队后备带头人资助项目(500001);黑龙江省博士后资助基金项目(LBH-Q12147);黑龙江省水利厅科技开发项目(201402);东北农业大学"学术骨干"资助项目(16XG11)

摘　　要：为获取三江平原龙头桥灌区降水的变化特征,根据龙头桥灌区1959～2016年的逐月年降水量的统计数据,首先,对龙头桥灌区近58年的总体降水量的统计参数进行求解,再运用滑动平均法得到降水量总体的变化趋势、其次应用M-K(Mann-Kendall)突变检验法对降水量突变的年份进行求解,并利用Morlet小波分析法得到总体降水量的变化周期,然后应用求得的结果对龙头桥灌区近58年来降水量的统计规律、趋势性变化、突变性变化和周期性变化特征研究分析。最终,利用1,3,6,12,24,36个月等多时间尺度的标准降雨指数(SPIn)求得龙头桥灌区总体降水量的丰枯程度状态变化特征,并分析了在多时间尺度下不同旱涝程度发生的频率。研究结果表明:龙头桥灌区1959～2016年的年降水量平均值为531.00mm,降水量年际间分配不均匀,且整体呈下降趋势,年际倾向率为-0.0172mm·a-1;年降水量在2012年发生明显的突变;龙头桥灌区年降水量周期存在多时间尺度特征,其年降水量具有18年和28年两个主要周期。随着SPI值时间尺度的增大,总体的旱涝变化特征越来越明显,其中12和24个月尺度能明显看出旱涝的周期变化,随着时间尺度的再增加其变化趋势无明显变化,最终得到龙头桥灌区干旱主要发生在1967～1969年和1977～1980年。通过不同时间尺度SPI值的比较和旱涝发生频率分析发现,龙头桥灌区58年来旱涝变化交替出现,正常年份发生频率在60%以上,极涝、极旱和重旱发生的频率不足5%。表明本研究区域属于雨量充裕区且适合灌区的发展。研究成果可为实现灌区多水源的高效利用、促进灌区水资源系统协调发展提供重要决策依据。According to the statistics data of monthly annual precipitation from 1959 to 2016,the variation characteristics of precipitation have been figured out in Longtouqiao irrigation area of the Sanjiang Plain.First of all,the statistical parameters of the total precipitation in the 58 years of the Yongchaoqiao Irrigation District were solved.Then the moving average method was used to obtain the overall precipitation trend.After that,the M-K(Mann-Kendall)mutation test was used to solve the mutation years in precipitation.The Morlet wavelet analysis method was used to obtain the change period of the total precipitation,and then the results obtained were used to study and analyze the statistics,trends,mutation changes and periodic changes of precipitation in Longtouqiao irrigation area in the past 58 years.Finally,using the standard precipitation index(SPI)at multiple time scales such as 1,3,6,12,24,and 36 months,the characteristics of the abundance state of the total precipitation here were obtained.And the frequency of occurrence of different droughts and floods were analyzed at multiple time scales.The results showed that the annual average precipitation from 1959 to 2016 in this area was 531.00mm,the annual distribution of precipitation was uneven and exhibited a decreasing trend and the inter-annual trend rate was-0.0172mm·a-1.There existed a mutation point at 2012.The annual precipitation period has multiple time scale characteristics.The annual precipitation has two major periods of 18 and 28 years.With the increase of the time scale of SPI values,the overall characteristics of drought and flood changed obviously.The 12-month and 24-month scales could be clearly seen the cycle changes of droughts and floods.With the increase of time scale,there is no obvious change trend.Through the comparison of SPI at various time scales and drought and waterlogging frequency analysis found that the drought and waterlogging alternate changes occurred in 58 years,the frequency of the normal years was over 60%,and the frequency

关 键 词：年降水量 变化趋势分析 标准降水指数 旱涝等级 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]