海陆温差指数与我国华北地区降水的相关性分析  

Correlation analysis between sea-land temperature difference index and precipitation in north China

作　　者：卢静荣 张济世[1] LU Jingrong;ZHANG Jishi(School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学环境与市政工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《人民长江》2018年第19期46-52,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重大研究计划重大目标导向课题(2013CBA01806);国家自然科学基金重大项目(41690141);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671029)

摘　　要：选取中国东部边缘海(渤海、黄海、东海)与我国华北地区20个站点的气温构建海陆温差序列,通过相关性分析的方法探讨三大海域海陆热力差异与华北地区降水的相关性,并利用海温或海温差定义的北极涛动(AOSST)和北太平洋涛动(NPOSSTD)分析其与华北地区降水的相关性,直接描述海气系统对我国华北地区气候的影响。结果表明:(1)华北地区降水对不同海域海陆温差的响应有所差异,其相关性非常显著,相关系数最高可达到0. 77。超前和滞后的相关系数明显高于同期相关系数,且超前和滞后的相关系数相差不大,并表现出相同的正负相关性,对应的月份形成12个月的周期变化。(2)涛动指数与三大海域海陆温差的相关性形成12个月的周期,但是SOI和Nino3. 4与三大海域海陆温差的相关系数很低,说明ENSO的发生通过其他的物理因素间接地影响我国的降水。(3) AOSST和NPOSSTD与华北地区降水的相关性与海陆温差相比没有提高,说明海洋上的大气环流与陆地的气候变化是相互影响的,其中通过中国邻近海域与陆地的热力差异可更准确地描述我国华北地区气候的变化。In this paper,the sea-land temperature difference series between the eastern marginal sea(Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,East China Sea)and 20 meterological stations in north China were build,and the correlation between the sea-land thermal differences and precipitation in north China was discussed by correlation analysis.Then,the relationship between Arctic Oscillation(AOSST)and North Pacific Oscillation(NPOSSTD),defined by sea surface temperature or sea surface temperature difference,and the precipitation in North China were analyzed to describe the effect of sea-air system on the climate in north China.The results show that:(1)The responses of precipitation in north China to the sea-land temperature differences in different sea areas are different,and its correlation coefficient is very significant,up to 0.77.The lead and lag correlation coefficients that are higher than that of the same period,showing the same positive and negative correlation with little difference and the corresponding month forms a 12-month variation cycle.(2)The correlation between the oscillation index and the sea-land temperature difference in the three seas also form a 12-month variation cycle,but the correlation coefficient between SOI,Nino3.4 and three sea-land temperature differences are very low,which shows that the occurrence of ENSO affects the precipitation of our country indirectly through other physical factors.(3)The correlation between AOSST or NPOSSTD and precipitation in north China is not improved compared with sea-land temperature difference,which indicates the atmospheric circulation of ocean and the climate change on the land are interacted,and the climate change in north China can be described more accurately by the thermodynamic difference between the adjacent sea area of China and the land.

关 键 词：华北降水 海陆温差 涛动指数 相关性分析 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]