节水条件下玛纳斯河流域绿洲变化及适宜规模分析  

Change and suitable scale of oasis under water-saving condition in Manas River Basin

作　　者：陈东 杨广[1,2] 李发东 李鹏飞[1,2] 闫珂 王泽林 CHEN Dong;YANG Guang;LI Fadong;LI Pengfei;YAN Ke;WANG Zelin(College of Water&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;Key Laboratory of Modern Water-Saving Irrigation,Shihezi 832000,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences&Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832000 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100190

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2018年第5期108-114,共7页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41601579;U180320005);国家重点研发计划专项(2017YFC0404303);新疆生产建设兵团高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划项目(CZ027204)~~

摘　　要：干旱区节水灌溉技术的大面积推广,有效的推动了绿洲化进程,使绿洲规模不断扩大。针对节水条件下流域尺度绿洲适度规模问题,以膜下滴灌技术的发源地玛纳斯河流域为例,利用1976-2015年五期卫星遥感影像,分析了节水条件下流域绿洲面积变化过程,基于水热平衡理论构建了绿洲适宜规模计算模型,确定了节水条件下流域绿洲适宜发展规模。结果表明:1976-2015年玛纳斯河流域绿洲总面积扩张388.3km^2,人工绿洲面积扩张3 873.3km^2,天然绿洲面积缩减3 485.0km^2;计算得出玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模为4 025.9～4 499.8km^2,目前绿洲实际规模超出绿洲适宜规模的3.4倍,且绿洲稳定指数H0为0.46,表明绿洲处于亚稳定状态;为了进一步保证绿洲稳定性,玛纳斯河流域适宜耕地面积应为1 801.6～2 013.7km^2。研究结果说明,不合理的绿洲开发,威胁到整个绿洲的稳定,确定绿洲适宜规模,可以为绿洲的稳定和可持续发展提供基础科学依据。The large-scale promotion of water-saving irrigation technology in arid areas has effectively promoted the oasisization process and expanded the scale of oasis.Regarding the appropriate scale of oasis on watershed scale under water-saving condition,we conducted a case study on the Manas River Basin,where the drip irrigation technology originates.We used the five-period satellite remote sensing images from 1976 to 2015 to analyze the change process of oasis area under water-saving condition.Based on the theory of water-heat balance,we constructed a calculation model for the suitable scale of oasis,and determined the suitable development scale of the basin oasis under water-saving condition.The results showed that:From 1976 to 2015,the total area of the oasis in the Manas River Basin expanded by 388.3 km 2;the area of the artificial oasis expanded by 3 873.3 km 2;and the area of the natural oasis diminished by 3 485.0 km 2.Calculation suggested that the suitable scale of the oasis in the Manas River Basin is 4 025.9-4 499.8 km 2.The actual scale of the oasis exceeds the appropriate scale of the oasis by 3.4 times.The oasis stability index H 0 is 0.46,indicating the oasis is in a metastable state.In order to ensure the stability of the oasis,the suitable cultivated area of the Manas River Basin should be 1 801.6-2 013.7 km 2.The research results suggested that unreasonable development of oasis can threaten the safety and stability of the oasis.Determining the suitable scale of oasis can provide a basic scientific basis for the stability and sustainable development of oasis.

关 键 词：绿洲适宜规模 水热平衡 绿洲稳定性 玛纳斯河流域 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程]