粮食金融化对粮食价格波动的影响效应  

An Analysis of the Effect and Influence of Food Financialization on Food Price Fluctuation——Based on GARCH and EGARCH models

作　　者：谢家智[1] 叶盛 涂先进[1] XIE Jiazhi;YE Sheng;TU Xianjin

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆市400715

出　　处：《西南大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第6期19-25,189,共8页Journal of Southwest University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：重庆市人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"乡村振兴战略背景下的农户家庭行为与诱致性制度变迁"(18SKB021);项目负责人:谢家智

摘　　要：粮食金融化背景下,粮食价格波动表现出不同于传统粮食市场的显著特征。论文构建粮食金融化影响粮食价格波动的理论基础和研究假设,运用GARCH和EGARCH模型,实证分析其影响效应。研究发现,粮食价格波动具有集簇性和非对称性特征。粮食金融化加剧了价格波动的集簇性和非对称性。研究证实了粮食金融化加剧粮食价格波动性的结论,为粮食价格管理和粮食安全政策的制定提供新的视角。In the context of food financialization,food price fluctuations show significant different characteristics from traditional food markets.This thesis constructs the theoretical basis and research hypothesis that food financialization affects food price fluctuations,and uses GARCH and EGARCH models to empirically analyze its impact effects.The study suggests that food price fluctuations is characterized by clustering and asymmetry.Moreover,food financialization has exacerbated the clustering and asymmetry characteristics of price volatility.The findings of the study confirm the conclusion that food financialization aggravates the volatility of food prices and provides a new perspective for the formulation of food price management and food security policies.

关 键 词：粮食价格 金融化 价格波动 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]