阿根廷经济迷局:增长要素与制度之失——阿根廷中等收入陷阱探析  

Argentina Economic Paradox: Growth Factors and Institutional Defects

作　　者：高庆波 芦思姮[3] Gao Qingbo;Lu Siheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院社会发展战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院国家治理研究智库 [3]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所

出　　处：《拉丁美洲研究》2018年第4期86-100,156,157,共17页Journal of Latin American Studies

摘　　要：文章聚焦于阿根廷的要素增长与制度因素,探讨阿根廷的经济增长问题。首先,本文利用制度经济学方法梳理了20世纪的经济增长历程,作者认为以农牧业为主的产业结构、进口替代工业化以及民众主义是阿根廷经济增长初始路径的典型特征。随后采用增长模型计算阿根廷全要素生产率,认为阿根廷全要素生产率偏低是影响经济持续稳定增长的关键所在。为了探究全要素增长率偏低的原因,文章分析了阿根廷的资本形成与经济结构因素,进而探究导致阿根廷经济迷局中始终存在的经济与社会政策长期背离的动因所在。分析显示,民众主义与选举政治交织在一起,与经济发展路径之间存在着内生冲突,导致阿根廷经济长期转型乏力。这种内生冲突的存在,在外体现为福利高企、资本形成困难、技术创新乏力,产业结构长期难以改变。尽管阿根廷经济与政治的各方参与者都做出了各自理性的选择,然而这种内生冲突却不利于阿根廷经济与社会的长期发展。The Argentine economic puzzle has sparked worldwide attention.The article uses the method of Institutional Economics to sort out the economic growth of Argentina in the 20th century.The industrial structure dominated by agriculture and animal husbandry,the strategy of import substitution industrialization and populism are typical characteristics of the initial path of economic growth in Argentina.By calculating the total factor productivity of Argentina and comparing it with the United States,the author finds that the low total factor productivity of Argentina is the key factor of the“middle income trap”.In order to explore the reasons for the low growth rate of total factor productivity,the article analyzes the capital formation and economic structural factors of Argentina,explores the causes of long-term deviation of the economic and social policies.The analysis shows that there are conflicts between populism,electoral politics and the path of economic development.Such endogenous conflicts are reflected in aspects such as the high welfare,the difficulties in capital formation,lack of technological innovation,and long-term difficulty in updating the industrial structure.

关 键 词：阿根廷 进口替代工业化 全要素生产率 民众主义 公共选择 

分 类 号：F178.3[经济管理—世界经济]