基于AquaCrop模型的气候变化对陕西省冬小麦产量影响模拟分析  

Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Shaanxi Province Based on the AquaCrop Model

作　　者：周英霞 王全九[1,2] 张继红 谭帅[1] 何斌[1] ZHOU Yingxia;WANG Quanjiu;ZHANG Jihong;TAN Shuai;HE Bin(State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-Hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area,Xi′an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Losses Plateau,Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地,西安710048 [2]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2018年第6期357-364,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：陕西水利科技计划项目"陕西省农业干旱风险评估与区划"(2014-1010)

摘　　要：通过分析陕西省3个地区(延安、长武及安康)1957—2013年气温和降水等气象因子的变化,运用AquaCrop模型模拟分析了在现状降雨条件下,气温及CO_2浓度等气象因子变化对陕西省冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明:气温升高0.1℃,长武及安康分别减产0.3%和0.7%,延安增产0.5%;延安和安康CO_2浓度增加20μmol/mol,两地分别增产3.6%和4.2%,长武CO_2浓度增加10μmol/mol,增产2.2%;气温和CO_2浓度同时变化(即气温升高0.1℃同时延安和安康CO_2浓度增加20μmol/mol,长武增加10μmol/mol),延安、长武和安康分别增产4.0%,2.0%,3.6%。在仅考虑气温及CO_2浓度变化的情况下,与2012年相比未来18年3种典型年(枯水年、平水年和丰水年)下,3个地区因区域而表现不同,延安冬小麦增产3.3%～10.3%,长武增产2.3%～10.0%及安康增产1.8%～9.8%。可见,气温与CO_2浓度增加,陕西省"暖干+高碳型"或"暖湿+高碳型"气候有利于冬小麦产量的提高,延安>长武>安康,即可在陕北地区适度增加冬小麦种植面积,提高农业产量。Analysis of change in meteorological factors like temperature and precipitation during 1957-2013,the effects of temperature and CO 2 concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model under current rainfall condition in three regions(Yan′an,Changwu and Ankang)of Shaanxi Province.The results showed that the annual temperature increased by 0.1℃,the winter wheat yield in Changwu and Ankang were reduced by 0.3%and 0.7%,respectively,while it increased by 0.5%in Yan′an,when annual CO 2 concentration increased by 20μmol/mol in Yan′an and Ankang,the winter wheat yield increased by 3.6%and 4.2%,respectively,the annual CO 2 concentration in Changwu increased by 10μmol/mol,the yield increased by 2.2%;when the annual temperature and CO 2 concentration rose simultaneously,i.e.,temperature rose by 0.1℃,CO 2 concentration of increased by 20μmol/mol in Yan′an and Ankang,increased by 10μmol/mol in Changwu,the winter wheat yield increased by 4.0%,2.0%and 3.6%in Yan′an,Changwu and Ankang,respectively.Only considering the variation of temperature and CO 2 concentration,the winter white yield had different preferences because of the variation of regions.Under three typical years(i.e.,dry,normal and wet year),the winter wheat yield may be increased by 3.3%～10.3%in Yan′an,2.3%～10.0%in Changwu and 1.8%～9.8%in Ankang in the next 18 years compared to that in 2012.Therefore,the increases of temperature and CO 2 concentration,the warm-dry and high-carbon as well as the warm-wet and high-carbon climate patterns were conducive to increasing of the winter wheat yield.The increasing rate decreased in the order:Yan′an>Changwu>Ankang,which indicated that it would be possible to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately in order to increase agricultural output in the northern Shaanxi.

关 键 词：气温 CO2浓度 AquaCrop模型 冬小麦产量 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]