基于多情景的巫山县山洪灾害危险评价  

Assessment of Hazard of Flash Flood Disaster in Wushan County Based on Multi-Scenarios

作　　者：林孝松 崔梦瑞 牟凤云 余情 徐州 LIN Xiaosong;CUI Mengrui;MOU Fengyun;YU Qing;XU Zhou(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074, China;College of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学土木工程学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2018年第6期370-376,共7页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"山区县域公路洪灾形成机制研究"(41601564);国家自然科学基金校内培育项目"中小尺度山洪灾害链复杂演化机制及综合灾情评估研究"(2018PY15);重庆市基础研究与前沿探索项目(cstc2018jcyjAX0156)

摘　　要：以重庆市巫山县为研究区,构建了静态动态山洪灾害危险评价指标,按照48h降雨量为50,100,150,200,250mm这5种情景,模拟获取了研究区地表汇流累积量;采用空间叠加法计算了各网格单元山洪灾害危险指数值并将山洪灾害危险划分为高、中、低危险和基本安全4个等级。研究结果表明:巫山县山洪灾害以低危险和中危险等级为主,但中、高危险面积相对较大,达总面积的39%;在48h降雨量由50mm增加到250mm的过程中,基本安全面积基本不变,低危险面积稍有降低,中危险面积减少10.425 1km^2,而高危险区面积则显著增加13.727 5km^2;从各乡镇来看,中、高危险面积所占比例超过40%的达10个乡镇,且危险指数相对较高的乡镇主要集中在研究区的南部和西部;从各行政村来看,评价结果与历史灾害分布情况吻合相对较好,同时危险指数值大于1.7的村占总数的54.11%。研究结果从不同尺度、多情景体现了巫山县山洪灾害的危险分布,可为研究区山洪灾害防治提供科学依据,具有一定借鉴和指导意义。Taking Wushan County of Chongqing as the research area,we constructed static and dynamic hazard assessment index for flash flood disaster.Based on the five conditions of precipitation(50 mm,100 mm,150 mm,200 mm and 250 mm in 48 hours),we took the land use and soil type factors into account and simulated the cumulative amount of surface runoff in the study area.We calculated the flash flood disaster hazard index value of each evaluation unit in the research area by using the spatial superposition method,and classified the risk of flash flood disaster into four levels of high hazard,medium hazard,low hazard and basic security based on the threshold value.The results showed that mountain flash flood disasters in Wushan County were dominated by low risk and medium risk areas,but areas with the medium and high risks were relatively large,up to 39%of the total area.while the precipitation increased from 50 mm to 250 mm within 48 hours,the area with basic security was basically unchanged,the area with low risk slightly reduced,the area with medium risk reduced by 10.425 1 km 2,the area with high risk significantly increased by 13.727 5 km 2.On the township scale,there were 10 townships which contained medium and high risk areas accounting for 40%of the total area.The towns which held relatively high risk indices were mainly located in the south and west of the study area.On the administrative village scale,the results of the evaluation were in good agreement with the distribution of historical disasters,while the risk index value more than 1.7 of the total number of villages accounted for 54.11%.The results from different scales and multi-scenarios reflected the hazards distribution of mountain torrents in Wushan County,which could provide the scientific basis for the prevention and control of mountain torrential disasters in the research area and had some guiding significances.

关 键 词：环境水利 危险评价 情景模拟 山洪灾害 巫山县 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P954