中国海水养殖变化态势和空间需求预测  

Changes and forecast of space demand in mariculture in China

作　　者：张燕 于永海[2,3] 袁道伟[2,3] 蔡恒江 张瑞瑾 ZHANG Yan;YU Yong-hai;YUAN Dao-wei;CAI Heng-jiang;ZHANG Rui-jin(College of Marine Science and Environment,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China;National Marine Environment Monitoring Center,Dalian 116023,China;Key Laboratory of Sea Areas Management Technology,State Ocean Administration,Dalian 116023,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学海洋科技与环境学院,辽宁大连116023 [2]国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁大连116023 [3]国家海洋局海域管理技术重点实验室,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《大连海洋大学学报》2018年第5期633-638,共6页Journal of Dalian Ocean University

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅计划项目(L2015086);国家海洋局海域管理技术重点实验室基金资助项目(201502)

摘　　要：为了解海水养殖发展过程和未来发展空间需求,基于1986—2015年海水养殖时间序列数据,从海水养殖产量、养殖面积分析了中国海水养殖变化态势,并采用Logistic曲线拟合法对中国养殖用海空间需求进行预测。结果表明,中国海水养殖产量和面积均逐年增加,年平均增长率分别达11. 2%和7. 0%,海水养殖产品未来在中国水产品供应中仍将占有重要地位。贝类养殖在海水养殖产业中占比最高,产量和养殖面积比例分别在72. 0%、65. 9%以上,但占海水养殖产量的比例呈下降趋势;鱼类、虾蟹类占海水养殖总面积的比重呈下降趋势,但占海水养殖产量的比例均呈现增长态势;藻类养殖稳中有升,但增速较缓;其他(海参、海胆等海珍品类)无论是产量还是养殖面积增长趋势明显,养殖面积年平均增长率达15%。2020、2025、2030年中国海水养殖面积需求分别为253. 904 4、267. 096 8、274. 698 3万hm^2,但养殖用海增长变缓,趋于饱和。受近海环境影响、其他行业用海挤占,近海养殖面积从数据上呈现缓慢增长,但需求压力以及深远海养殖的发展,海水养殖空间仍有很大的潜力。Changes in mariculture were evaluated from production and area based on the series data of mariculture from 1986 to 2015,and the method of logistic curve fitting was applied to forecast the demand for sea area in China to understand the development trend of mariculture and future space demand.The production and area of mariculture in China continue to increase,with an average annual growth rate of 11.2%and 7.0%,respectively.Mariculture production will continue to occupy an important position in the supply of aquatic products in China,with the maximal proportion in shellfish culture,accounting for 72.0%in volume and 65.9%in area.However,shellfish culture industry shows a decreasing trend in the proportion of mariculture production.The proportion of fish,shrimps and crabs shows a downward trend in mariculture area,but an increasing trend in the proportion of mariculture production.Algae cultivation is rising steadily with a slow rate,and the others(sea cucumber,sea urchin,etc.)have obvious growth trend in both production and area,with average annual increase rate of 15%in aquaculture area.In 2020,2025,and 2030,the sea area demand of mariculture in China will be 253.904 4×10 4,267.096 8×10 4,and 274.698 3×10 4 hectares,respectively,but the growth will slow down and tend to be saturated.Limited by the offshore environment and the sea used by other industries,aquaculture area has experienced a slow growth,and still a great potential for mariculture space due to demand and development of deep-sea aquaculture.

关 键 词：海水养殖 Logistic曲线拟合 需求预测 养殖用海管理 

分 类 号：S931.9[农业科学—渔业资源]