蓝狐毛皮价格波动特征及影响因素分析  

The Empirical Analysis of Fluctuation Characteristics of Fur Price and Its Influencing Factors:a Study on Blue Fox Fur Robe

作　　者：甘林针 郭敬 张立中[1] Gan Linzhen;Guo Jing;Zhang Lizhong(Economic Management Academy,Beijing Forestry University, Beijing,100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《野生动物学报》2018年第4期896-902,共7页CHINESE JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE

基　　金：北京市社科基金项目(17ZDA17)<基于"两山"理论的京津冀地区农民生态创业减贫机制研究>;国家社科基金项目(11BJY097)<农产品价格波动与调控对策研究>

摘　　要：狐狸皮是三大主要毛皮之一,其价格波动状态对整个毛皮市场行情具有一定代表性。本文以蓝狐皮为例,选取1995～2015年间的时间序列数据,通过H-P滤波法考察蓝狐皮价格波动特征,并采用向量误差修正模型(VEC)分析供求因素和外部冲击对蓝狐皮价格的影响。研究结果表明:蓝狐皮价格波动频率高、振幅大,其受自身价格波动的影响程度最大,养殖成本、毛皮加工成本、消费者需求能力、国际毛皮市场冲击和替代品价格对蓝狐皮价格波动的影响存在明显滞后期。因此,中国需要以毛皮价格波动规律为基础,在生产上发展规模经营以降低生产成本,在销售上组建拍卖行以优化贸易环境,同时建立专业的行业组织对毛皮产业动态进行引导,综合提高从业人员收入和推进中国毛皮产业健康发展。Fox fur is one of the three main furs in China,and its price fluctuation is representative of the entire China fur market.Taking blue fox fur as an example,time series data for 1995-2015 were examined in this study.The fluctuations in prices for blue fox fur were investigated by using H-P filter analysis,and the effects of supply and demand factors and external shocks on the price of blue fox fur were analyzed by vector error correction model(VEC).Results showed that prices fluctuated at high frequency and with great amplitude.Factors that might also lead to price fluctuation included costs of breeding and processing,customer demand,shocks from international market prices,and substitution prices.Price fluctuations lagged behind changes in these factors.Based on our analyses of fur price fluctuation,we offer here advice to improve the income of employees and promote healthy development of the fur industry.Recommendations include developing scale operations to reduce costs of production,establishing auction houses to optimize trading environment in sales,and setting up professional groups to guide the development of the fur industry.

关 键 词：毛皮价格 蓝狐皮 价格波动 H-P滤波法 VEC模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]