橡胶种植户对价格低迷的反应——意愿表达与行为选择  

Study on the Response of Rubber Growers to Low Prices:Willingness Expression and Behavior Choice

作　　者：刘锐金[1,2] 伍薇 何长辉[1] LIU Ruijin;WU Wei;HE Changhui(Rubber Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Danzhou,Hainan 571707 China;Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488 China)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所,海南儋州571737 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2018年第4期55-63,107,共10页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(1630022016021;1630022018014);国家社会科学基金项目(11CJY064)

摘　　要：基于2013和2016年橡胶种植户调查数据,运用普通线性回归、二值选择、(有序)多值选择模型分析了农户对价格低迷做出意愿表达和实际行为选择之间的差异。总体而言,相比于云南西双版纳,海南橡胶种植户更偏向于对价格波动做出反应;海南种植户对价格低迷的实际行为反应比意愿表达更加强烈;在跟踪调查的样本中,不足一半的种植户预期和实际行为相一致。橡胶收入占比大的农户对价格低迷的生产意愿表达和实际行为选择都比较谨慎,倾向于不调整原来的割胶生产规律;对价格低迷的意愿表达受户主及其家庭特征影响较大,而实际行为选择则是橡胶林的特征;高价位下意愿表达主要受户主干部身份和家庭劳动力的约束;具有较高技术水平和橡胶收入占比的农户意愿表达与行为选择一致的概率较高。⑴Background--The relative price of products is the key information for production decisions,such as labor allocation and technology adoption.Understanding how farmers respond to price changes is one of the main issues for policy makers and implementers.The nominal price of natural rubbergot a record high in 2012,but it has been in a continuous downturn since 2014.From the perspective of willingness expression and actual behavior,we need to identify farmers who have made behavioral changes and explain these differences.⑵Methods--In 2013,a household survey was conducted in Xishuangbanna,Yunnanand counties in Hainan s main producing areas,focusing on understanding farmers willingness to make choices about low prices and high prices.Due to the oversupply of the global natural rubber market,prices continued to slump.In 2016,a questionnaire surveyfocused onhow farmers made the actual behavior choices about the price downturnwas carried out.The data of two householdsurveys not only provide material for statistical description of changes in production laws,but alsofor examining the differences between willingness expression and actual behavior choice.The main methods include OLS,ordered Logit,and Probit models.⑶Results--In general,rubber growers in Hainan are more inclined to respond to price fluctuations than in Xishuangbanna mainly because of the different positions.The actual behavior of Hainan growers in response to low prices is more radical than the willingness expression.Less than half of the samples of the follow-up survey have the results that the expected and actual behaviors are consistent,that is,the willingness and behavior of most farmers are inconsistent.Farmers with a large proportion of rubber income are more cautious about productionwillingness expression and actual behaviorchoice responding to price downturn,and tend not to adjust the original rubber production rules,which may be related to the higher opportunity cost and the relative importance in household expenditure.The willingness expression

关 键 词：橡胶种植户 价格持续低迷 意愿表达 实际行为 选择模型 

分 类 号：F307.24[经济管理—产业经济]