一种基于地震早期辐射P波能量的高速铁路Ⅰ级地震警报预测方法  

A predicting method for magnitude 1 earthquake alarm of high-speed railways based on seismic early radiated P-wave energy

作　　者：宋晋东[1] 教聪聪 李山有[1] 侯宝瑞 汪源 SONG Jindong;JIAO Congcong;LI Shanyou;HOU Baorui;WANG Yuan(CEA Key Lab of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration(CEA),Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《振动与冲击》2018年第19期14-22,38,共10页Journal of Vibration and Shock

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51408564; U1534202);中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项(2016A03);中国地震局创新团队发展计划;国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAK03B01)

摘　　要：以准确、快速预测高速铁路Ⅰ级地震警报为目标,提出了一种基于地震早期辐射P波能量的四水准预测40 cm/s2方法。该方法利用日本K-net强震数据,基于能够表征地震破裂辐射能量的地震动参数速度平方积分IV2(Squared Velocity Integral)与加速度峰值PGA(Peak Ground Acceleration)的线性统计关系,通过P波段IV2对应的Ⅰ级地震警报阈值预测PGA是否能够达到40 cm/s^2。同时,引入能够稳定估计震级M的参数特征周期τ_c,以P波段τc的阈值表征大震级事件,以此体现震级对预测结果的影响。基于IV2阈值与τ_c阈值,建立了四水准预测Ⅰ级地震警报的方法模型。利用2016年4月14日熊本6. 5级(Mj)地震中日本九州新干线沿线K-net台站数据,进行了Ⅰ级地震警报的准确性与时效性分析,结果表明,该方法可以在距离震中最近的台站P波触发后1秒预测出Ⅰ级地震警报,并较九州新干线脱轨时刻和气象厅紧急地震速报发布时刻分别提前了3. 34 s和4. 84 s。Here,a new approach to predict 40 cm/s 2 with 4-level based on seismic early radiated P-wave energy was proposed with predicting accurately and rapidly the magnitude 1 earthquake alarm of high-speed railways taken as the objective.This method used Japan K-net strong ground motion data,based on the linear statistical relation between the ground motion parametric squared velocity integral IV2 to characterize earthquake rupture radiation energy and the peak ground acceleration(PGA),to predict if PGA reaches 40 cm/s 2 using the magnitude 1 earthquake alarm threshold corresponding to IV2 of P-wave.Meanwhile,a parametric characteristic periodτc being able to stably estimate the seismic magnitude M was introduced.The threshold of P-waveτc was used to characterize the large seismic magnitude event,and reflect the influence of seismic magnitude on the predicted results.Based on thresholds of IV2 andτc,the method model to predict the magnitude 1 earthquake alarm with 4-level was built.Using the strong ground motion data of 14 April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake(M j=6.5)recorded at K-net stations along Kyushu Shinkansen,analyses were done for correctness and timeliness of the magnitude 1 earthquake alarm.The results showed that the magnitude 1 earthquake alarm can be predicted within 1 second after P-wave triggers at the station nearest the epicenter;this prediction time is 3.34 s and 4.84 s earlier than Kyushu Shinkansen derailment time and the emergency earthquake report time issued by the meteorological agency,respectively.

关 键 词：高速铁路 地震警报 辐射能量 P波 阈值 

分 类 号：P315.3[天文地球—地震学] P315.7[天文地球—固体地球物理学]