互联网金融、股票市场与宏观经济——基于SVAR模型的实证研究  

Internet Finance,Stock Market and Macro-economy:An Empirical Study Based on the SVAR Model

作　　者：王晗[1] 王佳琪 WANG Han;WANG Jiaqi(Zhongnan University of Economic and Law,School of Statistics and Math)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学,湖北430064

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2018年第5期117-130,共14页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

摘　　要：在加快构建我国多层次资本市场的现实背景下,互联网金融依靠自身的先天优势,促进资本融通发展迅猛,增强实体经济发展活力,在加快经济结构调整等方面发挥了重要作用,但也对我国股票市场产生一定冲击。本文分析了我国互联网金融、股票市场与宏观经济的发展现状以及三者之间相互影响的作用机理,并基于结构VAR模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明:第一,短期内互联网金融对股票市场产生负向作用,但随着时间的推移负向作用减弱,并扭负转正。第二,互联网金融对宏观经济产生正向作用。第三,股票市场对宏观经济的冲击作用较弱,正负效应更迭,以负影响为主。最后,本文基于研究结论给出了相关建议。Under the background of the accelerating construction of China's multi-level capital market,the Internet finance develops rapidly.Relying on its innate advantages,it has played an important role in promoting capital circulation,enhancing the vitality of real economic development,and accelerating economic restructuring,however,this is also a shock to the stock market.This paper analyzes the status of Internet finance,stock market and macroeconomy respectively in China,and the interaction mechanism among them.An empirical study is based on the structural VAR model.The results show that:firstly,Internet finance has a negative effect on the stock market in the short term,however,it would gradually diminished as time past by,and turn to a positive effect in the end.Secondly,Internet finance has a positive effect on the macro-economy.Thirdly,the impact of stock market on macro-economy is weak,positive and negative effects change,mainly negative effects.Finally,this paper gives some suggestions based on the results.

关 键 词：互联网金融 股票市场 宏观经济 结构VAR 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]