成熟民主制下行的原因——基于清晰集质性比较分析的检验  

The reason for decline of mature democracy:a test based on a crisp set qualitative comparative analysis

作　　者：王建新[1] Wang Jianxin(Fudan UniversitySchool of International Relations and Public Affairs,YangpuShanghai,200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海杨浦区200433

出　　处：《云南行政学院学报》2018年第5期52-59,共8页The Journal of Yunnan Administration College

摘　　要：2016年,西方发达国家中出现了很多不寻常的状况,如民族主义、民粹主义、极端势力的崛起等。这是否意味着成熟民主制处于下行趋势呢?学界曾对此展开争论,赞成者和反对者各执其词。本文借助于政治科学领域中较为流行的民主指数,检验了2006-2015年十年间成熟民主国家的民主发展状况,发现有70%的民主国家出现了民主下行,而30%则没有出现民主下行。面对正反两种结果,笔者采用了清晰集质性比较分析的方法,得出结论:成熟民主制的下行是内因与外因、结构与行为以某些特定组合方式综合作用的结果。其中,民族主义、孤立主义抬头是必要条件。根据变量组合的不同,笔者提炼出成熟民主制下行的四种因果路径,每种路径都有一定的作用机制,这四种原因的解释力达到67%。In 2016,there were many unusual situations in western developed countries such as nationalism,populism and extreme forces.Do these mean that Western democracy is in a downward trend The scholars have already argued it,but the supporters and opponents had their own words.This paper examines the democracy development of mature democratic countries in the decade of 2006-2015 through popular Democracy Index in political science field.This paper finds that 70%of mature democratic countries experienced democracy decline and 30%did not.In the face of positive and negative results,the author adopts Crisp Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis method and concludes that western democracy decline is the result of internal and external factors,structure and behavior factors in certain combination,in which the rise of nationalism and isolationism is a necessary condition for the decline of democratic quality.According to the combination of variables,the author extracts four causal paths of democracy decline,the explanatory power of which reaches 67%,and explains the mechanisms in them.

关 键 词：民主下行 清晰集 质性比较分析 

分 类 号：D0[政治法律—政治学]