考虑水资源短缺风险的不确定性水资源优化配置  

Optimal allocation of water resources under uncertainty considering risk of water shortage

作　　者：付强 王珊珊 李天霄 FU Qiang;WANG Shanshan;LI Tianxiao(School of Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2018年第10期52-61,共10页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479032)

摘　　要：以黑龙江省和平灌区为研究区域,运用Copula函数构建自然降雨条件下灌区水资源(降水量和ET0)供需联合分布对其耦合量化模型,分析水资源短缺遭遇概率。针对灌区水资源调度系统的不确定性和复杂性,构建区间线性规划模型,以灌区收益最大为目标函数,优化多种情景下各作物灌溉水量。结果表明,对于灌区水资源供需短缺遭遇风险情境,Frank Copula函数构建联合分布模型可较好描述降水量与ET0联合概率分布特性。降雨量和ET0丰枯遭遇频率中,丰枯异步频率大于同步频率,分别为75.27%和24.73%。9种遭遇组合频率中P-ET0同丰、P-ET0丰平、P-ET0丰枯,总配水量较大。耗水作物种植面积最大的水稻配水量区间分配变化幅度大。所得结果可为优化配置和平灌区水资源及提升用水效率提供决策支持。Taking Heping irrigation district in Heilongjiang Province as an example,the joint probability distribution of water resources(precipitation and ET0)was established and qualified through Copula function method and the encountered probability of risk of water shortage was analyzed.In view of the uncertainty and complexity in the irrigation area water resource scheduling system,the interval linear programming model was constructed,and the maximum irrigation benefit was used as the objective function to optimize the irrigation water in various scenarios.Results showed that the joint probability distribution characteristics between precipitation and ET0 could be well described by the application of Frank Copula function for the risk of water shortage scenarios.In the precipitation and ET0 encounter frequency,the value of the asynchronous encounter probability(AEP)was greater than that of the synchronous encounter probability(SEP),which was 75.27%and 24.73%,respectively.There were a larger water allocation between P-ET0 of the combination of wet and wet conditions(W-W),wet and normal conditions(W-N),wet and dry conditions(W-D)of all the total nine kinds of encounter combination scenarios.The distribution range of water allocation of rice with the largest planting area was the highest.The results can provide decision support on the water allocation optimization and improvement of water efficiency for Heping irrigation area and similar irrigation area.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 联合分布 水资源风险短缺 不确定性 优化配置 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]