中国作物生长模拟监测系统构建及应用  

Establishment and application of crop growth simulating and monitoring system in China

作　　者：侯英雨 何亮 靳宁 郑昌玲 刘维 张蕾 Hou Yingyu;He Liang;Jin Ning;Zheng Changling;Liu Wei;Zhang Lei(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]西北农林科技大学黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2018年第21期165-175,312,共12页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41705095);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001)资助

摘　　要：该文系统阐述了中国作物生长模拟监测系统(CropGrowthSimulatingandMonitoringSysteminChina,CGMS-China)的构建方法及其在国家级农业气象业务中的应用。CGMS-China是基于WOFOST、Oryza2000、WheatSM、ChinaAgroys 4个作物模型构建的系统,在作物长势监测评估、农业气象灾害影响评估、作物产量预报等农业气象业务中均有应用。该系统可进行作物长势监测、产量预报、农业气象灾害影响评估。利用CGMS-China模拟输出的地上生物量、叶面积指数、穗质量,建立作物长势评估指标,可对小麦、玉米、水稻进行实时长势监测与评估。通过CGMS-China对2014年8月中旬华北黄淮夏玉米的干旱产量损失评估和2016年6月22日早稻高温热害的产量损失预估表明,CGMS-China对农业气象灾害影响评估的效果较好。利用CGMS-China对2014年冬小麦主产省进行产量预报,各省的平均预报相对误差为7%。与此同时,在CGMS-China中利用遥感数据同化方法,对山西洪洞县进行产量预报,预报相对误差小于11%。该系统在国家级农业气象业务中具有良好的应用前景。Agro-meteorological services can provide a strong guarantee for agricultural disaster prevention and reduction,national food security and sustainable development of agriculture.In this paper,we systematically described a Crop Growth Simulating and Monitoring System in China(CGMS-China).The system was established based on 4 crop models,i.e.WOFOST,Oryza2000,WheatSM,ChinaAgrosys.The CGMS-China could be applied to national agro-meteorological services.The CGMS-China includes database layer,model layer and application layer.In the model layer,4 crop models were integrated by application program interface.They were driven by daily-scale data.The WOFOST model was for winter wheat and maize simulation,the WheatSM was for winter wheat simulation,Oryza2000 was for rice simulation and ChinaAgrosys was for remote sensing data assimilation.The data assimilation method included SCE-UA,particle swarm optimization,and so on.The CGMS-China was used for crop growth monitoring,agro-meteorological disaster assessment and crop yield forecast.The crop growth monitoring was based on leaf are index,aboveground biomass and dry weight of storage organs.The agro-meteorological disaster was estimated based on yield reducing rate.The yield could be predicted by relative yield prediction method based on aboveground biomass or yield in the CGMS-China system.The output of CGMS-China for crop growth monitoring could be used for comparison with those in last 5 years,last year,and normal year.The case study in Tailai,Heilongjiang and Fuxin,Liaoning showed that the CGMS-China was a reliable agro-meteorological service product with good quality for crop growth monitoring,crop yield forecast and yield loss assessments of agro-meteorological disasters.Crop growth assessment index was established using outputs of CGMS-China which included aboveground biomass,leaf area index and weight of storage organs.They were applied to real-time monitoring of wheat,maize and rice growth.The drought assessment was also conducted by the CGMS-China system.The CGMS-Chi

关 键 词：模型 气象 遥感 作物长势监测 农业气象灾害 产量预报 同化 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] S127