基于模糊多属性的汽车制造商召回主动度评价模型研究  

A Study on the Evaluation Model of Manufacturer Voluntary Recall Based on Fuzzy Multiple Attributes

作　　者：练岚香 曾凌云[2] 王艳玲[1] 王鑫[1] 张明春[1] LIAN Lanxiang;ZENG Lingyun;WANG Yanling;WANG Xin;ZHANG Mingchun(Beijing City University,Beijing 100083,China;Product Defect Center,China Institute of Standardization,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京城市学院信息学部,北京1000083 [2]中国标准化研究院产品缺陷中心,北京100101

出　　处：《北京城市学院学报》2018年第5期60-65,共6页Journal of Beijing City University

基　　金：国家质量监督检验检疫总局科技计划项目;项目编号2015QK239

摘　　要：在汽车召回这场博弈中,汽车制造商的召回主动性对汽车召回最终结果至关重要。政府对汽车召回实行着监督和管理的作用,然而由于财政拨款和办事人员受限,政府所起到的作用将有限:无力对市场上所有故障车汽车进行检测,也无力发起所有缺陷车的召回。充分了解汽车制造商对各种缺陷车的召回主动度,可以帮助政府在汽车召回这场博弈中获得信息优势,把有限资源投入到更需要进行检测的故障车去。通过建立模糊多属性汽车制造商的召回主动度评价模型,可以对汽车制造商的召回主动性进行评价,且实行了量化评价。该模型经验证可以达到85%以上的准确率,有效地帮助政府了解制造商的召回意愿,为政府在召回决策中获取更大信息量,从而为更多地从市场上剔除缺陷车保障交通安全,最大化政府的边际效益提供了可能。Automobile recall is a game between manufacturers and the government.Manufacturers initiative to voluntarily recall has crucial influence on the eventual recall result.The government is responsible for the supervision and administration of automobile recall,but its role is restricted due to limited fiscal appropriation and staff,making it unable to detect and recall all the defected automobiles on the market.Therefore,a comprehensive understanding of the degrees to which manufacturers would voluntarily recall different kinds of defected automobiles can provide the government with an advantage on information in this game,helping it to devote its limited resources to the most needed ones.The paper investigates the evaluation model of the degree of automobile manufacturers voluntary recall based on fuzzy multiple attributes including automobile defects,manufacturers,government,and consumers.The simulation results show that the model is accurate at above 85%,thus can effectively help the government understand manufacturers willingness to recall and provide it with substantial information in making decisions when the market springs out lots of automobile defects.To maximize the government s marginal benefit will be possible.

关 键 词：汽车召回 召回主动度 模糊多属性 评价模型 博弈 

分 类 号：U491.6[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]