西藏道路安全气象指数的预报研究  

Study on the forecast of road safety weather indices in Tibet

作　　者：德庆卓嘎[1] 王曙东[2] 次仁[3] 吉律 Dechen-Dolkar;WANG Shu-dong;Tsering;Jilv(Weather Service Centre of TAR,Lhasa 850000,China;Public Meteorological Service Centre of CMA,Beijing 100081,China;School of Science,Tibet University,Lhasa 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象局气象服务中心,西藏拉萨850000 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [3]西藏大学理学院,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2018年第2期50-58,共9页Plateau Science Research

基　　金：西藏自治区气象局科技项目(xzqxj201614);西藏自治区重点科技计划项目(xz201703-GA-02)

摘　　要：文章通过统计分析,首先确定了影响西藏公路交通的主要气象因子,对其影响给予量化,其次通过对不同天气条件下道路通行能力、交通现状、致灾因子进行分析,根据不同的影响对每种风险因子赋予不同的权重,最后按照气象指数设计原理,计算了交通气象指数和安全阈值,建立西藏公路交通气象安全指数预报。交通气象指数预报能及时发布以主要国道为主的动态路况信息与公路视频直播系统,即时显示视频直播图像信息,使有关部门可以在第一时间获得准确的交通沿线降雪、结冰等恶劣天气信息和道路安全气象指数。In this paper,using statistical analysis,First the main meteorological factors affecting the road traffic in Tibet were determined and their influence were quantified,then through analysis of road capacity,traffic sta-tus,and disaster-causing factors under different weather conditions,each risk factor was given different weight based on its influence,in addition according to the principle of weather indices design,the road weather index and safety threshold were calculated,in the end the forecast of Tibetan road safety weather indices is established.The forecast of road weather indices can release dynamic information regarding road conditions and live video/image broadcast mainly for the state roads,which enables the relevant departments to obtain the accurate road safety weather indices and bad weather information such as snow,freezing etc.in the first time.

关 键 词：西藏公路交通 道路安全 气象指数 预报 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]