广西龙胜县崩塌和滑坡地质灾害的气象预警预报  

Meteorological forecasting and alarming system against geological disasters in Longsheng of Guangxi

作　　者：温智熊 蓝俊康[1] 梁一敏 WEN Zhi-xiong;LAN Jun-kang;LIANG Yi-min(College of Envioronmental Science and Engineering,Guilin University of Technology,Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学环境科学与工程学院,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《桂林理工大学学报》2018年第3期464-468,共5页Journal of Guilin University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41064001);广西区国土资源厅项目(桂国土资办[2009]250);广西高等学校高水平创新团队及卓越学者计划项目

摘　　要：通过降雨对龙胜县滑坡、崩塌发生的数量与发生当日的降雨量、3日累计降雨量进行相关统计分析,发现其滑坡、崩塌发生的数量与上述两种降雨量关系曲线图出现2处拐点,拐点处所对应的降雨量值被认为是降雨诱发滑坡、崩塌发生数量产生重大变化时的临界降雨量值(日降雨量60、110 mm,3日累计降雨量100、200 mm)。以龙胜县滑坡、崩塌地质灾害各易发区为基本单元,分别计算各易发区在不同降雨量段下,这两种地质灾害发生的信息量值,再根据信息量值大小,把全县划分出5个滑坡、崩塌地质灾害危险性等级。预报时,先将预测的当日降雨量值或3日累积降雨量值归入相应的降雨量段,再采用相应降雨量段滑坡、崩塌地质灾害危险性预报图来预报不同地区地质灾害危险性大小。As rainfall is the main inducing factor of geological disasters,the statistical analysis of the numbers of geological disasters and the amount of rainfall occurring on rainfall seasons and the accumulated rainfall in 3 days were carried out.It is found that there are two inflection points in the relationg graphs between the geological disasters and the values of rainfall during disasters.The values of rainfall corresponding to the inflection points are thus considered to be critical rainfall values for abrupt changes in the landslides and collapses(daily rainfall:60,110 m;accumulated 3-day-rainfall:100,200 mm).The geological disaster prone areas in Longsheng are taken as the basic units and the information values of the geological disasters occurring in different precipitation periods in each prone area are calculated respectively.Finally,the whole county is divided into 5 geological disaster risk grades according to the magnitude of the information value.In the process of geological hazard forcasting,the predicted daily rainfall value or 3-day cumulative rainfall is first collected and checked to which period it will belong,then the corresponding forecast chart of geological hazards can predict the risk of geological hazard in different prone areas.

关 键 词：滑坡 崩塌 地质灾害 气象预警预报 龙胜县 

分 类 号：P314.1[天文地球—固体地球物理学]