多种订正技术在风电场风速预报订正中的应用  

Application of Various Technologies in Modification of Wind Speed Forecast in Wind Farms

作　　者：张铁军[1,2] 颜鹏程[2] 张正英 段海霞[2] 王有生 李耀辉[2] ZHANG Tiejun;YAN Pengcheng;ZHANG Zhengying;DUAN Haixia;WANG Yousheng;LI Yaohui(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;Ejin Horo Banner Meteorological Bureau,Ejin Horo 017200,Inner Mongolia,China;Meteorological Service Center of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [3]内蒙古自治区伊金霍洛旗气象局,内蒙古伊金霍洛017200 [4]甘肃省气象服务中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2018年第5期835-844,共10页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：甘肃省气象局西北区域数值预报创新团队(GSQXCXTD-2017-02);国家电网(河北)项目(SGHE0000KXJS1700074);中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201802);干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM201715);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001)共同资助

摘　　要：通过订正技术提高风速预报的准确性,能够显著提升风电场风力发电效率,增加电能并网的稳定性,减轻电网压力、降低经济运营成本。为电场优选出合理的风速订正方法,利用Weibull、AVT以及MOS方法分别针对甘肃省黑崖子和南湫风电场开展风速预报的订正研究。结果表明,订正前风速预报的平均误差在2～3 m·s-1,订正后降至1～2 m·s-1。3种方法对比来看,MOS方法订正后的平均误差最低,其次是Weibull和AVT方法,但是不同方法对不同等级风速的订正效果差异显著。其中,黑崖子风电场,风速处于0～4、4～8和8 m·s-1以上范围时,对应订正效果最好的分别是AVT、MOS和Weibull方法;南湫风电场,当风速为4～13 m·s-1时,Weibull和AVT方法的订正效果显著优于MOS方法。The improvement of wind speed forecast accuracy by modifying error can significantly improve wind power efficiency of wind farms,increase the stability of power grid connection,relieve the power grid pressure and reduce the economic cost.In order to select the reasonable modification method of wind speed in different wind farms,the forecasted error of wind speed by GS-WPFS was modified by using the Weibull,AVT and MOS methods at Heiyazi and Nanqiu wind farms of Gansu Province from 3 June to 31 August 2016.The results show that the average errors of forecasted wind speed were 2 to 3 m·s-1 before the modification,while those decreased to 1-2 m·s-1 after the modification.By comparing,the average error of modified wind speed by MOS method was lowest,followed by Weibull and AVT methods.However,there were significant differences in modified results to forecasted wind speed with different grades by three methods.For Heiyazi wind farm,the best modification effect of forecasted wind speed with 0-4,4-8 and 8 m·s-1 and above were AVT,MOS and Weibull methods,respectively.However,for Nanqiu wind farm,when the wind speed ranged from 4 to 13 m·s-1,the modification effect of Weibull and AVT methods were significantly better than that of MOS method.

关 键 词：风速预报 统计订正 Weibull方法 AVT方法 MOS方法 

分 类 号：P404[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]