相似预报方法在山西省云量预报中的应用  

Application of Analog Forecast Method in Cloud Cover Prediction in Shanxi Province

作　　者：黄海亮 靳双龙[3] 王式功[1] 陈录元 董春卿[5] HUANG Hailiang;JIN Shuanglong;WANG Shigong;CHEN Luyuan;DONG Chunqing(College of Atmospheric Science,Chengdu University of Information and Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Warning Center,Shenyang 110166,China;State Key Laboratory of New Energy and Energy Storage Operation Control,China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;Gansu Science and Technology Department,Lanzhou 730000,China;Shanxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Taiyuan 030002,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]辽宁省气象灾害监测预警中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [3]中国电力科学研究院新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室,北京100192 [4]甘肃省科技厅,甘肃兰州730000 [5]山西省气象台,山西太原030002

出　　处：《干旱气象》2018年第5期845-851,共7页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目(91644226);国家电网公司科技项目(1704-00206);国家基础科技条件平台建设项目(NCMI-SBS17-201707;NCMI-SJS15-201707)共同资助

摘　　要：云是一种常见且非常重要的天气现象,云量预报一直是天气预报业务中的难点之一。本文基于相似预报原理和相似离度判据,利用ERA-Interim再分析资料、T639数值预报产品和1980—2013年山西省109个地面气象观测站云量资料,遴选与云量关系最为紧密的预报因子进行组合,设计了3层嵌套5级过滤的逐步相似过滤方案,对2010—2013年山西省云量进行时效为10 d的回代预报。结果表明:该套方案对山西低云量预报效果优于总云量预报。1～10 d低云量预报误差在1成以内的准确率为71. 6%～74. 4%,其中春、秋、冬季各月的预报误差均小于2成,而夏季6—8月的误差相对略大; 1～10 d总云量的预报误差在3成以内的准确率为54. 9%～62. 8%,大部分月份的预报误差小于3成,但7—9月的误差相对较大。总云量和低云量预报准确率随着预报时间延长而略有减小,这对于山西省云量的短、中期预报具有重要参考价值。Cloud is a common and important weather phenomenon.The prediction of cloud cover is one of difficulties in weather forecast.In this paper,according to the analog forecast principle and analogue deviation criterion,based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data,T639 numerical forecast products and cloud cover data at 109 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1980 to 2013,the most closely related forecast factors with cloud cover were selected and combined,firstly.Then,the stepwise analog filtering scheme with three-layer nested grids and five-level filtering were designed,On this basis the back substitution forecast of cloud cover in 1-10 days were done in Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2013.The results show that the forecast effect of low cloud cover by the stepwise analog filtering scheme was better than that of total cloud cover.The average accuracy of forecast error within 10 percent for 1-10 days low cloud cover was from 71.6%to 74.4%,and the forecast error of low cloud cover was less than 20 percent in spring,autumn and winter,while that was relatively larger in summer from June to August.The average accuracy of forecast error within 30 percent for total cloud cover in 1-10 days was from 54.9%to 62.8%,the forecast error in most months was less than 30 percent,but it was relatively larger from July to September.The forecast accuracy of total cloud cover and low cloud cover decreased slightly with the increase of forecast days,which had important reference significance for short-term and medium-term forecast of cloud cover in Shanxi Province.

关 键 词：相似预报方法 云量预报 逐步过滤 相似离度 

分 类 号：P457.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]