房价波动非完美预期对城镇居民消费的区域差异性影响  

The Regional Different Effects of House Price Fluctuation Imperfect Expectancy on the Urban Residents' Consumption

作　　者：樊锦霞 叶莉[1] 张玉梅[2] FAN Jinxia;YE Li;ZHANG Yumei(Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Hebei University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2018年第6期13-21,共9页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"房地产调控政策的影响及其效应研究"(12BJY053)

摘　　要：在传统生命周期理论和持久收入假说的基础上,通过放松理性人和完全信息假设,引入非完美预期与其导致的不确定性,可以从行为经济学的心理预期与财富幻觉的角度分析其对消费的作用机理,并结合效用理论,建立涵盖上述因素的非完全预期生命周期模型。将该模型运用于中国房地产市场,针对2000—2016年31个省区面板数据,实证研究房价波动的非完美预期以及其导致的不确定性对消费的影响。结果显示,东部和中部地区居民的非完美预期对其消费具有显著抑制作用,西部地区居民的非完美预期对其消费具有促进作用;不确定性对居民消费具有抑制作用,中部地区最强,东部地区次之,西部地区最弱。由此提出因地制宜调控房价、合理引导预期、降低不确定性的政策建议。Based on the traditional life cycle theory and long-lasting income hypothesis,the rational person and the complete information hypotheses are relaxed,the imperfect expectation and the uncertainty followed are introduced in this paper.Furthermore,the influential mechanism is analyzed in the view of behavioral economics and the illusion of wealth.Moreover,combined with the theory of utility,a non-fully expected life cycle model covering the above factors is established.To apply the model to the real estate market in China,annual panel data of the 31 provinces and cities from 2000 to 2016 is selected to study the imperfect expectation of house price volatility and the impact of the uncertainty on consumption.The results show as follows:imperfect expectations of residents in the eastern and central regions have a significant inhibitory effect on household consumption;imperfect expectations of residents in the western region have a catalytic effect on their consumption;the uncertainty has a deterrent effect on household consumption,and the list from the strongest to the weakest is the east,the center and the west.According to the results,the policies of adjusting house price according to the local conditions,reasonably guiding expectations and reducing the uncertainty are put forward.

关 键 词：消费 非完美预期 房地产财富效应 区域异质性 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学]