生育二胎对孩子教育水平的影响研究  

Research on the Influence of Bearing the Second Child on Children's Education Level

作　　者：黎煦[1] 陶政宇 LI Xu;TAO Zhengyu(School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing,100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《人口学刊》2018年第6期20-30,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目:基于人力资本的我国代际收入流动机制与公共政策研究(14BSH023);首都经济贸易大学研究生2018年科技创新学术型项目:我国教育代际流动性的效应估计与传递机制研究--基于经济学和社会学学科交叉的分析

摘　　要：二胎政策全面放开后并没有出现预期的生育高峰。已有文献主要从教育、收入、家庭、人口特征等方面分析了生育意愿下降的原因,但是忽略了人们对生育二胎后会降低孩子教育水平的担心。为了实证检验生育二胎对孩子教育水平的影响,本文根据CFPS基线调查数据,运用工具变量估计等方法进行经验研究。结果表明生育二胎对个体的教育水平没有统计上的显著影响。该结论通过一系列稳健性检验。在实证分析中通过数据重组不仅扩大了样本量,还克服了以往研究中仅包括同住同胞的局限并且控制了同胞的结构效应。相对于已有的双胞胎、计划生育政策等工具变量,用第一胎的性别作为工具变量,发现第一胎为女性显著增加了第n(n>2)次生育的可能性,有证据表明第一胎的性别并没有受到人为干预的影响。从内部有效性和外部有效性两方面得出的结果更加可靠,该结论有可能在两个方面拓展了传统的资源稀释假说。Since the second-child policy was fully liberalized,we have not seen the expected birth peak.The existing literature mainly analyzes the reasons for the decline of fertility willingness from the aspects of education,income,family,and demographic characteristics,but ignores the important concern that people would be likely to lower their children’s education level after giving birth to a second child.In order to em.pirically test the impact of the second birth of the child on the education level of the child,empirical re.search is conducted based on the CFPS baseline survey data by using instrumental variable estimation methods.The results show that there is no statistically significant effect on the level of education of the sec.ond child.This conclusion is validated through a series of robustness tests.In the empirical analysis,through data reorganization,not only the sample size is expanded,but also the limitations of the former study including sibling living together are overcome,and the structural effects of the siblings are controlled.Compared with existing instrumental variables such as twins and one-child policy,using the gender of the first child as an instrumental variable helped to find that the first child for women significantly increases the likelihood of the nth birth(n>2),and it is evident that the gender of the first child is not affected by human intervention.The results are more reliable in terms of internal effectiveness and external effectiveness and the conclusions drawn by the article may expand the traditional resource dilution hypothesis from two aspects.

关 键 词：生育二胎 同胞数量 教育水平 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]