极地预报年及相关科学问题  

A brief introduction to Year of Polar Prediction and its related scientific questions

作　　者：姜珊[1] 杨清华 孙启振[1] 李春花[1] 张林[1] 滕骏华[1] Jiang Shan;Yang Qinghua;Sun Qizhen;Li Chunhua;Zhang Lin;Teng Junhua(Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China;Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies,School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中山大学大气科学学院广东省气候变化与自然灾害研究重点实验室,广东珠海519082

出　　处：《海洋学报》2018年第11期157-165,共9页

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1407205;2018YFA0605901)

摘　　要：为有效应对全球气候变化和极地增暖挑战,世界气象组织(WMO)于2013年启动了"极地预报计划"(PPP,2013-2022年),并于2017年启动了PPP的核心行动"极地预报年"(YOPP,2017年中期至2019年中期)。本文对"极地预报计划"和"极地预报年"的相关情况进行了介绍,重点说明了该研究项目支撑下在社会效益、检验、观测、模拟、资料同化、集合预报、可预报性和诊断、全球关联8个领域需要解决的科学问题和开展的工作。同时,探讨了我国借PPP/YOPP实施契机,在极地现场观测、数值预报和信息服务方面需要做出的努力。The Polar Prediction Project(PPP,2013-2022)and Year of Polar Prediction(YOPP,mid-2017 to mid-2019)were initiated by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO),to effectively tackle the challenges of global climate change and polar warming.Eight key research goals,e.g.,user applications and societal benefit,verification,observations,modelling,data assimilation,ensemble forecasting,predictability and forecast error diagnosis,global linkages,as well as the selected activities were discussed.Suggestions related to the in-situ observation,numerical prediction and information service,are also given to the Chinese polar research community to well take this opportunity of the PPP/YOPP implementation.

关 键 词：极地预报计划 极地预报年 科学问题 

分 类 号：P731.32[天文地球—海洋科学]