回复电压多元参数回归分析的油纸绝缘老化诊断方法  

Aging Diagnosis Method of Oil-Paper Insulation Based on Multiple Parameter Regression Analysis of Recovery Voltage

作　　者：蔡金锭[1] 叶荣 陈汉城[1] Cai Jinding;Ye Rong;Chen Hancheng(College of Electrical Engineering and Automation Fuzhou University Fuzhou 350108 China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学电气工程与自动化学院,福州350108

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2018年第21期5080-5089,共10页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61174117)

摘　　要：针对目前油纸绝缘状态在单一特征量评估中容易存在评估结果的片面性、不准确性等问题,提出一种基于回复电压多参量回归的油纸绝缘状态诊断方法。首先根据近十年来收集的不同老化状态的变压器现场实测数据,建立以油中糠醛浓度作为y轴、以时域特征参量作为x轴的五维回归体系;其次验证该分析满足回归校验,试验结果表明:因变量计算值与实测值吻合度较高,且五个参量指标均具有显著贡献;最后根据变压器实际运行状态制定状态分级策略,构建绝缘状态的环形分级示意图,并通过未加入回归分析的变压器实测数据验证了该评价体系的准确性和可信度。此方法可为油纸绝缘变压器的老化诊断提供新思路。An oil-paper insulation state diagnosis method based on multiple parameter regression of recovery voltage was proposed,which is easy to be one-sided and inaccurate in the assessment of oilpaper insulation.Firstly,according to the field measured data of different aging states collected in recent 10 years,bringing in the regression analysis method,used the furfural content in oil for the y axis,with the time-domain characteristic parameters for the x axis,to establish a five dimensional regression system.Secondly,the verification results of this model satisfied the regression check,which manifest that the calculated value of the dependent variable has a certain correlation with the measured value,and five parameters all have significant contribution.Finally,according to actual running state of transformers,the state classification strategy was formulated,and the circular classification diagram of insulation state was constructed,accuracy and credibility of the evaluation system were verified by the measured data of transformers without regression analysis.This method can provide new ideas for aging diagnosis of oil-paper insulation transformers.

关 键 词：多元回归 时域特征量 糠醛浓度检测 油纸绝缘 老化诊断 

分 类 号：TM854[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术] TM411