包含金融稳定因素的货币政策规则研究  

Study on Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Stability Factor

作　　者：印重[1] 刘金全[1] 张小宇[1] Yin Zhong;Liu Jingquan;Zhang Xiaoyu

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《数量经济研究》2016年第2期1-19,共19页The Journal of Quantitative Economics

基　　金：吉林大学基础科研业务费(2015BS012);国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC008)、国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD001)、国家社会科学基金面上项目(15BJY174)的联合资助

摘　　要：本文运用动态优化的方法,在总需求与总供给曲线的约束下,分别得到通货膨胀缺口以及通货膨胀缺口与产出缺口两种情形下中央银行的名义利率调整规则,发现相较于相机抉择型的货币政策规则,规则型的货币政策规则社会福利损失最小,是最优的货币政策选择。在此基础上,我们构建了中国金融稳定指数,并利用广义矩估计法对引入金融稳定因素的规则型线性利率规则进行了估计。结果表明,我国中央银行在执行货币政策时对金融稳定缺口的关注度不高,这是由于我国利率市场化程度还不高,货币政策对金融市场影响的传导渠道还不够畅通,因此在对金融市场进行调控时,中央银行更多的是采取行政手段进行干预,而随着我国利率市场化进程的不断加快,采用市场化的手段对金融市场进行调控和监管是未来金融市场稳定机制的关键。In this paper,under the constraints of the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply curve,we use the dynamic optimization method to get the nominal interest rate adjustment rules of the central bank with“the inflation gap”and“the inflation gap and output gap”respectively.The results show that compared with the discretionary rule,regular monetary policy rule loses smaller social welfare,which is the optimal monetary policy choice.On this basis,we construct the financial stability index and use the generalized moment method to estimate the regular linear interest rate rules which introduce financial stability factors.The results show that in the implementation of monetary policy,China s central bank does not pay much attention on the financial stability gap,this is due to the amateur level of interest rate marketization in China,and the impact channels of monetary policy on the financial market is not smooth enough.Therefore,while carrying out financial market regulation,the central bank is more likely to take administrative methods to intervene,and as China s interest rate marketization process continues to accelerate,using market-oriented methods to regulate financial markets is the key to future financial market stability mechanism.

关 键 词：货币政策规则 金融稳定指数 广义矩估计 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]