Systematic Optimization of China's Manufacturing Industrial Structure  

作　　者：Shi Dan Zhang Cheng 史丹;张成

机构地区：[1]Institute of Industrial Economics (IIE), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) [2]School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics (NUFE) [3]Institute of Industrial Economics, CASS

出　　处：《China Economist》2018年第6期2-16,共15页中国经济学人（英文版）

基　　金：CASS Innovation Program “Application of Big Data Technology in Economic Forecasting and Early Warning,” National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Policy Research Key Program(71742001);NSFC Youth Program(71703065);the Ministry of Education Cultural and Social Sciences Fund Youth Program(17YJC790195)

摘　　要：Using China's two-digit manufacturing sectors as samples, this paper first analyzes China's output structure optimization objectives and energy conservation and emissions abatement potentials in 2015, then examines various factor inputs' matching, and estimates their capacity utilization status, focusing on capital stock factor. Results of our study suggest that:(1) China's manufacturing output structure has great potentials of optimization to reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity by 18.08% and 17.42% respectively over the original values;(2) to reduce factor mismatch, various supporting input factors need to be introduced after manufacturing output structure optimization. The level of capital stock, in particular, requires a substantial change;(3) China's manufacturing capacity utilization(56.14%) in 2015 was far below its average level(73.27%) in the mid and late stage of the 11 th Five-Year Plan period(2008-2010). The low capacity utilization was attributable to economic slowdown and investment inertia. After input factor matching, capacity utilization may rise to the latter level.Using China's two-digit manufacturing sectors as samples, this paper first analyzes China's output structure optimization objectives and energy conservation and emissions abatement potentials in 2015, then examines various factor inputs' matching, and estimates their capacity utilization status, focusing on capital stock factor. Results of our study suggest that:(1) China's manufacturing output structure has great potentials of optimization to reduce energy intensity and carbon intensity by 18.08% and 17.42% respectively over the original values;(2) to reduce factor mismatch, various supporting input factors need to be introduced after manufacturing output structure optimization. The level of capital stock, in particular, requires a substantial change;(3) China's manufacturing capacity utilization(56.14%) in 2015 was far below its average level(73.27%) in the mid and late stage of the 11 th Five-Year Plan period(2008-2010). The low capacity utilization was attributable to economic slowdown and investment inertia. After input factor matching, capacity utilization may rise to the latter level.

关 键 词：OUTPUT STRUCTURE factor STRUCTURE OVERCAPACITY energy CONSERVATION and emissions ABATEMENT 

分 类 号：O21[理学—概率论与数理统计] Q01[理学—数学]