人口红利与“储蓄之谜”的实证研究——基于动态演化模型的实证分析  

The Empirical Study between the Demographic Dividend and the Chinese Saving Puzzle——Based on the Dynamic Evolution Empirical Analysis

作　　者：王树[1] 吕昭河[1] WANG Shu;LV Zhao-he(Yunnan University)

机构地区：[1]云南大学发展研究院

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第6期51-62,共12页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国人口红利的代际分配效应研究"(15BJL092);云南大学研究生科研项目"中国人口红利的代际效应--基于数量与质量替代视角"(YDY17022)

摘　　要：本文梳理了一二次人口红利与高储蓄之间的理论逻辑,通过引入双向代际因子的四期戴蒙德模型进行动态演化分析,并通过省级动态面板模型进行实证检验。研究发现:我国居民预期寿命的增加可以显著提升居民的储蓄率,而少儿抚养比与储蓄率的回归系数显著为负,老年抚养比与储蓄率的回归系数显著为正,并进行了稳健性检验。通过门槛模型发现,随着收入的增加,少儿抚养比对储蓄率的负效应不断减弱,而老年抚养比对储蓄率的正效应不断增加。本文将人口红利与高储蓄背后的逻辑进行梳理并进行解释,为我国的人口经济政策的制定提供一定的启示。This article reorganizes the theoretical logic between the twice demographic dividend and high savings.We introduce the two-way intergenerational factors to the 4 periods Diamond Model to do the mathematical analysis,and inspect this phenomenon with the empirical test.The study finds that the extending of the expected life can obviously increases the national saving rate.The coefficient between the child dependency ratio and saving is significantly negative.The coefficient between the old-age dependency ratio and saving is significantly positive.Then,we use the threshold panel model to find that when the revenue is increasing,the coefficient between the child dependency ratio and saving is attenuating.But the coefficient between the old-age dependency ratio and saving is strengthening.This phenomenon also reflects the national income gap is too wide.We reorganize the logical relationship between the demographic dividend and high savings and give some explanations to enlighten our population economic policy.

关 键 词：人口红利 储蓄之谜 戴蒙德模型 动态面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F830.48[经济管理—金融学] C924.4[社会学—人口学]