美国农产品出口波动成因动态分解  

A Dynamic Decomposition of the Causes of US Agricultural Exports Based on Revised CMS Model

作　　者：曹旭平[1] 童举希[2] CAO Xu-ping;TONG Ju-xi(School of Economics and Management,Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu 215500,China;Suzhou Agricultural Modernization Research Center,Changshu Institute of Technology,Changshu 215500,China)

机构地区：[1]常熟理工学院经济与管理学院,江苏常熟215500 [2]常熟理工学院苏州农业现代化研究中心,江苏常熟215500

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第6期92-103,共12页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BGL101)

摘　　要：基于COMTRADE相关数据,采用修正CMS模型对2002—2017年美国农产品出口波动成因进行实证分析,发现美国农产品出口波动主要受市场规模效应影响,但出口增速远低于世界需求增速;出口产品结构效应不明显,市场分布效应对美国出口农产品正面效应愈发显著,其中以中国市场进口增长贡献度最大;美国出口农产品整体竞争力并不强,在发达经济体市场竞争力表现呈下滑态势,仅在以中国为首的部分新兴市场表现出良好适应性与竞争力,且巴西大豆替代效应对美国农产品竞争力产生较大冲击。提出加强对美国农产品市场及竞争力演变监测、充分利用国际规则维护自身利益、弹性调整对美农产品贸易政策、提升中美农产品贸易依存度、延伸贸易合作平台与推进两国农业全方位交流等建议。The influencing factors of US agricultural exports fluctuation have been empirically analyzed using a modified CMS model based on COMTRADE data from 2002 to 2017.Conclusions are:the export fluctuation of American agricultural products was mainly affected by the global market scale effect;and its export growth is far lower than the world demand growth.The structure effect of export products is not obvious.The market distribution is bringing to a more positive effect on American export agricultural products,which is the largest contribution to China’s import growth.The overall competitiveness of American agricultural products exports is not strong,and the competitiveness shows a downward trend in developed economies.In some emerging markets,led by China,there are good adaptability and competitiveness.Brazilian soybeans’substitution effect are giving a great impact on American agricultural competitiveness.The countermeasures are that we should intensify the monitoring on American agricultural market and competitiveness evolution,making full use of international rules to protect China’s interests,flexibly adjusting the trade policies,increasing Sino-US agricultural trade dependence,extending trade cooperation platform and promoting agricultural comprehensive exchanges between US and China.

关 键 词：美国农产品 出口波动 市场规模效应 竞争力效应 

分 类 号：F752.023[经济管理—国际贸易]