我国饲(草)料供求及未来需求预测和对策研究  

Supply and Demand Analysis, Future Demand Forecast, and Countermeasure Studies for Forage Materials in China

作　　者：刘爱民[1] 贾盼娜 王立新[1] 吴良杰 Liu Aimin;Jia Panna;Wang Lixin;Wu Liangjie(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2018年第5期39-44,共6页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目"中国农业资源环境若干战略问题研究"(2016-ZD-10)

摘　　要：随着我国居民生活水平的提高,人们对国内肉、禽、蛋、奶等畜禽产品消费量及生产量的持续增加,国内饲(草)料的需求也将不断增长。本文在对我国饲(草)料供求变化分析的基础上,依据未来国内畜禽产品需求量的变化,对饲(草)料需求进行了预测。研究结果表明,未来我国饲草料供需缺口仍将扩大,为保障国内饲(草)料供给的安全,应适度扩大青贮玉米的种植,发展农区草业;充分合理利用农业资源,适度增加大豆、油菜籽等作物种植,增加国内粕类的有效供给;同时充分合理利用海外农业资源,保障国内饲(草)料供给安全。With improvement of the living standards,the domestic consumption and production of livestock products such as meat,poultry,eggs,and milk keep increasing,and thus the domestic demand for forage is raised.Based on the analysis of changes in the supply and demand of forage materials in China and the changes in the future demand for domestic livestock and poultry products,the future demand of forage materials is forecasted.The research results show that the gap of supply and demand of forage materials in China will continue expanding in the future,and for the safety of domestic forage supply,cultivation of silage corns should be appropriately expanded and the grass industry in agricultural areas should be developed.Additionally,agricultural resources should be fully and rationally utilized,and the cultivation of crops such as soybeans and rapeseeds should be appropriately expanded to improve the effective supply of domestic meals.Meanwhile,China should make full and reasonable use of overseas agricultural resources to ensure the safe supply of domestic forage materials.

关 键 词：饲(草)料 供需 预测 对策 

分 类 号：S816[农业科学—饲料科学]