生态移民工程与生态系统可持续发展的系统动力学研究——以三江源地区生态移民为例  

Research on the system dynamics of ecological migration engineering and ecosystem sustainable development: for example of Three-river-source region ecological migration

作　　者：钟水映[1] 冯英杰[1] ZHONG Shui-ying;FENG Ying-jie(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2018年第11期10-19,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"中国土地制度改革与农业现代化道路研究"(批准号:12JJD790046)

摘　　要：生态移民工程是近年来移民和生态环境研究方面的热点问题之一,它是在生态脆弱性地区面临"生态"和"贫困"双重短板下,基于人口、资源环境与经济社会的协调可持续发展原则而形成的一种由政府主导的系统的保护生态和扶贫的专项工程,着重实现生态脆弱性区域脱贫致富和生态保护,而实现生态移民的可持续安置和发展的基本前提是生态移民工程和生态系统可持续发展。通过构建生态移民工程中的生态可持续系统动力学模型,揭示了生境破碎化、生态移民工程和生态福利绩效三个子系统之间的因果关系和动态反馈机制,并以三江源地区生态移民为例对移民前后迁入地和迁出地的生态系统的可持续性进行仿真模拟。对模型进行的结构适合性和行为一致性检验表明,模型真实有效地反映了生态移民工程中生态系统的实际系统结构和功能。最后,通过调整生境破碎度指数、生态移民环境保护投资、生态恢复因子和生态发展因子四个政策变量的取值,从而设定了六种模式以进行生态移民生态可持续发展政策的模拟。政策模拟的结果显示:政策模式1～6反映了生态移民环境保护投资的增加,有助于降低生态移民区域生境破碎指数和提高生态福利绩效;政策模式3～6反映了生态移民环境保护投资应侧重于移民迁入地的生态发展投资,适当降低移民迁出地的生态修复投资比例;政策模式5～6说明了生态移民环境保护投资运作效率,影响生态移民生态系统可持续发展。因此,加大生态移民环境保护投资力度,调整迁出地和迁入地的生态投资比重对于实现生态移民生态系统重建和可持续发展至关重要,在此基础上提高生态投资运作效率是促进生态移民工程与生态系统可持续协调发展的最佳政策模式。Ecological migration project is one of the hot issues in the study of migration and ecological environment in recent years,and it is a government-led systematic project for ecological protection and poverty alleviation will focus on poverty alleviation and ecological protection in ecologically vulnerable areas,based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of population,resources,environment,economy and society.The basic premise of the sustainable resettlement and development of ecological immigrants is the sustainable development of ecological migration projects and ecosystems.Through constructing the ecological sustainable dynamic system model of ecological migration project,reveals the dynamic feedback mechanism among habitat fragmentation,ecological migration engineering and Ecological Welfare Performance,makes the case of ecological immigrants in Three-river-source region to simulate the immigration sustainable ecological system before and after the immigration,to provide the basis for decision-making in the implementation of ecological migration project ecological sustainable development.The structure suitability and behavior consistency test of the model show that the model is true and effective in reflecting the structure and function of the actual ecological immigration system.By adjusting the four policy variables of habitat fragmentation index,ecological migration environmental protection investment,ecological restoration factor and ecological development factor,set up six models to simulate the ecological immigrants sustainable development policy.Policy simulation shows:policy model 1-6 reflect the increasing of environmental protection investment helps to reduce the habitat fragmentation index and improve the ecological welfare performance in ecological migration areas;policy model 3-6 reflect environmental protection investment should focus on the development of ecological immigration immigration,appropriate to reduce the proportion of ecological emigration investment;policy model

关 键 词：系统动力学 生境破碎化 生态移民工程 生态福利绩效 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]