产品开发网络中的设计变更传播风险预测  

Predication of design change propagation risk in product development network

作　　者：郭于明 GUO Yuming(Mechanical and Electrical Engineering College,Jinggangshan University,Ji an 343009,China;Electronics and Information Engineering College,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]井冈山大学机电工程学院,江西吉安343009 [2]同济大学电子与信息工程学院,上海200092

出　　处：《计算机集成制造系统》2018年第10期2547-2558,共12页Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51465020)~~

摘　　要：变型设计过程中,设计变更传播雪崩式效应带来设计资源过度消耗,使得设计变更传播风险预测成为变型设计中的关键问题之一。由此提出一种基于小世界网络的设计变更传播风险预测方法。该方法探讨产品开发网络固有特性对设计变更传播风险控制的影响规律,分析产品开发网络中设计变更传播扩散、设计节点依赖性以及设计变更传播强度,进而阐述了设计变更传播最大风险优化机理。通过实例验证了所提方法的可行性,结果表明,该方法能有效预测设计变更传播的脆弱环节,提高变型设计的效率。In variant design process,design change propagation avalanche effect can bring over-consumption of design resources,which make the design change propagation risk predication become one of key issues to be solved in variant design.For this problem,a prediction method of design change propagation risk based on small-world network was proposed.In this method,the influence of product development network s inherent characteristics on the control of design change propagation risk was discussed,the design change propagation,design node dependency and design change propagation intensity in product development network were analyzed,and then the maximum risk optimization mechanism of design change propagation was elaborated.An example was given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method,and the results showed that this method could effectively predict the fragile link of design change propagation and improve the efficiency of variant design.

关 键 词：变型设计 产品开发网络 小世界网络模型 设计变更传播 风险预测 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论]