计及技术风险的复杂系统多分辨率风险评估方法  

Multi-resolution risk assessment for complex system including technical risk

作　　者：徐一帆 吕建伟[1] 谢宗仁 王广强 XU Yifan;LYU Jianwei;XIE Zongren;WANG Guangqiang(Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,湖北武汉430033

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2018年第5期161-170,共10页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401171);装备发展部装备预研基金资助项目(6140002050101)

摘　　要：针对技术风险难以直接度量、模型参数设定主观性较强等问题,利用技术成熟度的规范化方法评估系统组成的技术实现条件和难度;通过矩阵化的系统描述及关联关系推理,建立各分系统技术成熟度与系统过程模型动态参数之间的量化关系;采用系统过程建模仿真的间接方法,计算进度或费用超出可承受范围的不确定性,用以评估复杂系统研制的技术风险。通过多分辨率建模方法提高系统分析粒度,使该方法具有随系统演化过程对技术风险评估保持更新和分析粒度提升的能力。In order to deal with the difficulty of technical risk direct measurement and the strong subjectivity for model parameter setting,the TRL(technology readiness level)as a standard method,was applied for evaluating the condition and the difficulty of technology realization.The quantitative relations were built by system representation with matrix and relation inference between the TRLs of all subsystems and the dynamic parameters of system process model.Then the uncertainties of schedule and cost beyond tolerable range were evaluated by the indirect method of system process modeling and simulation for the technical risk assessment of complex system development.Additionally,to improve the system resolution for analysis,the multi-resolution modeling method is designed to update the assessment continuously and to improve the analytical resolution along with system evolution.

关 键 词：风险分析 技术风险 多分辨率建模 设计结构矩阵 复杂系统 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]