期刊SNIP指标趋势分析与预测研究——以图书情报领域3种期刊为例  

Trend Analysis and Prediction Research of Journal Indicator SNIP: Case Study of Three Journals in the Field of Library & Information Science

作　　者：周红霞 Zhou Hongxia(Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Library,Chongqing 400065)

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学图书馆,重庆400065

出　　处：《情报探索》2018年第11期58-64,共7页Information Research

基　　金：重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目"嵌入式学科服务--泛在知识环境下高校图书馆服务研究"(项目编号:15SKG075)成果之一

摘　　要：[目的/意义]旨在为科研工作者投稿提供参考。[方法/过程]采用Joinpoint趋势分析软件对图书情报领域3种知名期刊International Journal of Information Management、IEEE Transactions on Information Theory和Scientometrics的SNIP值进行趋势预测分析。首先,将3种期刊的SNIP值制作成文本文档,上传至Joinpoint软件,进行参数设定得到不同连接点下的线性回归分析图,比较分析获取最优连接点个数;然后,构建最优连接点个数下的趋势模型图对SNIP值进行预测。[结果/结论]根据连接点统计回归预测期刊指标达不到完全精确,但是使用此项技术图书馆员能够合理地预测期刊指标在未来的影响力变化情况,因而可以为科研工作者投稿选择提供有效建议。[Purpose/significance]The paper is to provide reference for paper publishing of science researchers.[Method/process]The paper uses Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis of source normalized impact per paper(SNIP)values of three top-ranking journals,including International Journal of Information Management,IEEE Transactions on Information Theory and Scientometrics.At first,it makes SNIP values of these three journals into text documents.Then it uploads these documents to Joinpoint software,sets up the parameters to gain linear regression analysis diagrams with different joinpoints,and obtains optimum number of joinpoints by comparative analysis.At last,it builds trend model diagram with the optimum number of joinpoints to predict SNIP values.[Result/conclusion]Predictions of journal indicators based on Joinpoints’statistical regression may not be completely accurate,but by this technique,the librarian can reasonably predict the changes of journal indicators in the future,and thus the predictions could provide effective suggestions for science researchers’contribution choice.

关 键 词：SNIP 趋势分析 图书馆服务 

分 类 号：G252[文化科学—图书馆学]