基于投入产出模型的萍乡市水资源短缺风险的经济评估  

Economic Loss Assessment of Water Resources Shortage in Pingxiang City

作　　者：黄彬彬[1] 鄢小令 李光锦 黄应厚 HUANG Binbin;YAN Xiaoling;LI Guangjin;HUANG Yinghou(Jiangxi Engineering Research Centre of Water Engineering Safety and Resources Efficient Utilization,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China;Hubei Xinglong Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering Co.,Ltd,Huanggang 438000,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院江西省水工程安全与资源高效利用工程研究中心,江西南昌330099 [2]湖北兴龙水利水电工程有限公司,湖北黄冈438000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2018年第11期79-82,88,共5页Pearl River

基　　金：江西省教育厅科研技术研究项目(GJJ151122);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51569015;51769017);江西省科技厅科技支撑项目(20161BBG70049);江西省水工程安全与资源高效利用工程研究中心开放基金(OF201609)

摘　　要：水资源短缺成为制约缺水型城市经济发展的重要因素,准确地评价水资源短缺的经济损失能够为政府相关部门提供科学的决策依据。将水资源投入产出线性规划模型分段优化处理,计算了水资源的影子价格,并得到了2020、2030年萍乡市水资源短缺的经济损失及概率分布。结果表明,二次水资源供需平衡后,2020、2030年由于缺水造成的经济损失最高可达1. 133、2. 005亿元,对国民经济的影响较大。Water shortage has become an important restricting factor to the economic development in water shortage cities.Accurate assessment of economic loss of water shortage can provide scientific decision-making basis for government departments.The paper constructed the water resources input output linear programming model,and calculated the shadow price of water resources.The economic loss and probability distribution of water shortage in Pingxiang in 2020 and 2030 are obtained.The results show that after the two supply and demand balance of water resources,the economic losses caused by water shortage in the 2020 and 2030 can reach 1.133 and 200 million 500 thousand yuan,which has great influence on the national economy.

关 键 词：水资源短缺 经济损失 影子价格 投入产出模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]