典型山区高速公路边坡远程监测系统应用及预测预警分析  

Remote Monitoring System Application and Early Warning-prediction on Slope of Typical Mountainous Highway

作　　者：邬凯 林顺 杨雪莲[1] WU Kai;LIN Shun;YANG Xue-lian(Highway Planning,Survey,Design and Research Institute,Sichuan Provincial Communications Department,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省交通运输厅公路规划勘察设计研究院,成都610041

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2018年第30期16-21,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：四川省交通科技项目(2012C14-2)资助

摘　　要：以湖南娄新高速公路边坡地质灾害监测预警为例,选择典型滑坡安装了远程监测系统,捕捉了滑坡体局部变形破坏的全过程;通过滑坡时空演化规律的分析,表明滑坡在降雨作用下表现出从前向后逐步扩展的"渐进后退式"变形破坏模式,滑坡时间变形曲线呈现出与日降雨量密切相关的阶梯状演化特征。从滑坡裂缝体系分布特征来分析,滑坡失稳演化处于加速变形阶段。通过调用边坡变形预测模型库进行变形跟踪预测对比分析表明,灰色-时间序列模型预测精度最高,可以选择该模型进行降雨型滑坡变形跟踪预测。根据变形与日降雨量的加卸载响应比分析,表明滑坡监测点的加卸载响应比时序曲线与滑坡变形失稳过程相吻合。最后采用有效降雨量模型进行了地质灾害区域预警,发布了相关预警信息。通过在娄新高速公路滑坡的系统应用,有效地验证了远程监测系统和预测预警方法的科学性和时效性,为公路边坡地质灾害防灾减灾提供了新的手段和方法。As a test,the real time remote monitoring and warning system early is applied to the slope of Loudi-Xinhua highway which is under construction in Hunan.The system captured local deformation failure process and revealed space-time evolution laws of the landslide.By analyzing time-space synthetic deformation,the landslide exhibits progressive-back deformation model and stepped appearance evolution with rainfall.By analyzing assorted cracks in different deformation periods,the landslide is in accelerated deformation phase.By comprehensive prediction design,it is proved that the GM-AR integrated forecasting model is reliable with high precision and can be widely used to practical engineering.In the meantime,load-unload response ratio analysis and rainfall regional early warning model,which.judged the correct stage of slope deformation and released the early warning information timely.The engineering applications show that the system is scientific and real-time and it can provide new tools and method for hazard prevention and reduction.

关 键 词：公路边坡工程 滑坡 远程监测 变形预测 加卸载响应比 区域预警 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]