全球性经济危机与全球货币体系调整:经验证据与理论框架  

Global Economic Crisis and Monetary System Adjustment:Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Framework

作　　者：张广斌[1] 黄海洲 张绍宗[1] Zhang Guangbin;Huang Haizhou;Zhang Shaozong

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学 [2]中国国际金融股份有限公司

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2018年第6期72-84,6,共14页International Economic Review

摘　　要：2008年爆发的全球金融危机已过去十年,但全球经济仍未走出危机的阴影。历史地看,每一次全球性经济危机的爆发都处于全球货币体系调整的关键时期,并且,全球货币体系未能适时调整正是危机爆发的重要原因,这引发了对全球货币体系调整与全球性经济危机之间关系的思考。从理论上来分析,单一主权货币充当国际本位货币的前提条件,是该货币发行的私有属性能够支撑其作为国际本位货币的公共属性,而支撑力的发挥,依赖于这一主权国家的经济体量足够大。然而,现实却是随着外部经济的趋同性增长,美国在全球经济中的占比趋于下降,全球货币体系平稳运行的理论张力会周期性崩断,其结果很可能是全球性经济危机的周期性爆发。The world economy is yet to step out of the fallouts of the global financial crisis ten years after its eruption in 2008.Historically,every global economic crisis occurred in a critical period of the global monetary system restructuring.Moreover,failure of the global monetary system to get adjusted in accordance with changing times was an important factor behind the outbreak of the global economic crisis,which has prompted us to explore the relationship between global monetary system adjustment and global economic crisis.Theoretically,the premise that a single sovereign currency acts as an international standard currency is that the private attribute of its currency issuance can support its public attribute as an international standard currency and whether the premise holds depends on the size of the economy of the sovereign state.However,the reality is that with the convergence of external economic growth,the United States has had a declining share in the global economy,which leads to the cyclical breakdown of the theoretical tension that sustains the global monetary system.The result is the cyclical outbreak of global economic crisis.

关 键 词：全球性经济危机 全球货币体系 国际本位货币 

分 类 号：F831.59[经济管理—金融学] F821