世界经济或将进入多趋势并存的时代:表征、成因与未来——兼论特朗普的“三零贸易秩序”  

Trump's “Triple-Zero” Trade Order and Future Trends of World Economy:Characteristics,Causes and Prospects

作　　者：王跃生[1,2] Wang Yuesheng

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]北京大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2018年第6期129-142,8,共15页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"企业异质性与中国出口市场多元化研究"(12CGJ026);北京市社会科学基金项目"对外直接投资对北京产业结构升级的影响效应与发展对策研究"(15JGB129)阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：近年随着特朗普执政以来推行单边主义、保护主义,原有世界经济结构与多边贸易体系不断趋于瓦解,全球经济与贸易秩序进入混乱无序状态。本文认为,基于世界经济发展的客观基础和经济全球化大趋势,孤立主义与保护主义再度兴起、双边主义与区域主义渐成主流、新型全球化的不断推进,这三种趋势并存将成为世界经济与国际贸易领域的长期状态。而特朗普所主张所谓"公平、对等"的"三零贸易秩序"及以此为依规的新的单一美国秩序并不具有现实性。The Donald Trump administration of the US has been implementing its unilateral and protectionist policies in the past two years,which has continually undermined the existing global economic structure and multilateral trade system.The world economy and global trade order have stepped into a state of chaos.This article argues that based on the actually conditions of world economic development and the fundamental trend of economic globalization,isolationism and protectionism,bilateralism and regionalism,and a new type of globalization will coexist in the long run to affect the world economy and international trade.The so-called fair and reciprocal“triple-zero”trade order advocated by Trump and the resulting new single American order will prove infeasible.

关 键 词：世界经济 国际贸易 保护主义 经济全球化 三零贸易秩序 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易]