基于logistic-ABC的恐怖活动风险因素识别与指标评级模型研究——俄罗斯2006-2016年恐怖活动的实证分析  

Identification of Terrorist Risk Factors and Index Rating Model Based on Logistic-ABC:An Empirical Research on the Terrorist Activities in Russia in the Period of 2006-2016

作　　者：连芷萱 夏一雪 连增水 兰月新 王沙骋[3] 史路遥 Lian Zhixuan;Xia Yixue;Lian Zengshui;Lan Yuexin;Wang Shacheng;Shi Luyao(China People's Police University,Langfang 065000;Institute of Defense Economics and Management,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081;Institute of the Army Communication Training,Zhangjiakou 075100)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学,廊坊065000 [2]陆军通信训练基地,张家口075100 [3]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《情报杂志》2018年第11期23-30,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国反恐怖融资的情报监管机制研究"(编号:17BZZ041)研究成果之一;公安理论及软科学研究计划重点项目"面向大数据的涉恐涉稳网络舆情风险预测与情报感知研究"(编号:2018LLYJWJXY006)

摘　　要：[目的/意义]为提高暴恐情报决策支持的科学性,更合理的评估暴恐风险。[方法/过程]构建了涵盖袭击者、袭击方式、袭击武器、袭击目标、袭击时间、袭击地点、表达思想等指标的恐怖活动风险要素指标体系,对GTD(Global Terrorism Database)全球恐怖主义数据库与Country Reports on Terrorism进行案例信息整理量化,构建案例信息数据库。并在此基础上构建Logistic-ABC模型,通过对案例统计数据的定量计算找出最关键的风险要素。[结果/结论]为暴恐风险提供符合实战需求的监测目标,在获得暴恐高风险要素后针对因素及反恐斗争的现实需要制定应对策略,以期为恐怖活动的风险评估提供有价值的情报决策支持。[Purpose/Significance]In order to improve the scientificity of the decision support for violent terrorism intelligence,we should assess the risk of violent terrorism in a more reasonable way.[Method/Process]This paper constructs an index system for the risk factors of terrorist activities covering attackers,attack mode,attack weapon,attack target,attack time,attack location and expression of thought,collates and quantifies the case information of GTD global terrorism database and Country Reports on Terrorism,and constructs case information database.On this basis,Logistic-ABC model is constructed,and the most critical risk factors are identified through quantitative calculation of case statistics.[Result/Conclusion]The research provides monitoring targets to meet the actual demand for the risk of violent terrorism and develops coping strategies for the factors and the reality of the fight against terrorism in order to provide valuable intelligence decision support for the risk assessment of terrorist activities.

关 键 词：恐怖活动 风险评估 LOGISTIC 指标体系 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]