基于Bass模型的谣言传播与控制问题研究#  

Research on Propagation and Control of Rumor Based on Competitive Bass Model

作　　者：谢丽 丁海欣[2] XIE Li;DING Hai-xin(School of Management,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;School of Tourism Management,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学管理学院,山东济南250100 [2]郑州大学旅游管理学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《计算机技术与发展》2018年第11期103-106,共4页Computer Technology and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(12YJC630034);河南省教育计划人文社会科学研究项目(2017-ZZJH-519)

摘　　要：信息时代存在大量的谣言传播,在当前的网络环境下,如果放任不管,则这类谣言将严重危害社会的安定团结,因此有必要研究谣言的传播机理,并进而为有效控制策略的制定提供依据。基于经典的Bass模型,从竞争性创新扩散角度构造谣言传播与控制模型,分析了谣言传播系统的稳定性条件与可能的扩散结果,并利用系统动力学仿真技术探索了典型情形下谣言传播的规律及控制与影响策略的实施要点。仿真及数理分析结果显示,真实信息的介入时间对于遏制谣言传播具有重要影响,但为了最终阻止谣言传播,还需要考虑到如何积极地影响谣言采纳者与真实信息接受者之间的互动,从而从根本上消除谣言。研究同时揭示,不仅需要注意谣言控制的结果,更应注重过程。There are vast propagations of rumors in information age.At current network situation,without controls,these propagations would endanger the stability and unity of the society seriously,hence it is necessary to investigate the law of propagation and further design effective strategies for the control of rumors.Based on the classic Bass model,from perspective of competitive innovation diffusion,we construct models for rumor propagation and control strategies,then analyze the stability conditions and outcomes of rumor propagation system,and employ system dynamics simulation technique to explore the law of rumor propagation and the critical points for the implementation of rumor control and intervention strategies under typical settings.The results of simulation and mathematical analysis indicate the timing of authentic information intervention has a great effect upon the propagation of rumor,but in order to suppress the propagation of rumor finally,it needs to effectively impact the interactions between the adopters of rumor and the adopters of authentic information to eliminate rumor completely.Besides,we also expose that both result and process control are important for rumor control and intervention.

关 键 词：BASS模型 谣言传播 谣言控制 舆情 仿真 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] G206.3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]