中国工业投资与工业结构优化实证研究  

An Empirical Study on Industrial Investment and Industrial Structure Optimization in China

作　　者：昌忠泽[1] 毛培[2,3] 张杰 Chang Zhongze;Mao Pei;Zhang Jie(Institute of China's Economic Reform and Development,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;China's Standardization Study,Beijing 100191,China;Academy of China's Economics Reform and Development,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财经研究院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [3]中国标准化研究院,北京100191 [4]中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院,北京100872

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2018年第6期31-44,共14页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD011);中国人民大学2018年度"中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)的特色发展引导专项资金"

摘　　要：通过引入控制变量,基于面板固定效应模型,重点考察2008年国际金融危机爆发以来我国工业投资对工业结构优化作用的动态变化。研究发现:(1)我国各地区工业结构的产业结构偏离度ISD值整体呈上升趋势,表明我国各地区工业结构的不合理程度正在加剧。与东部地区相比,中、西部地区工业结构的不合理程度较高。(2)工业投资与工业结构ISD值显著正相关,即工业投资的增加将会引起工业结构不合理程度加剧;从地区角度看,工业投资都与工业结构ISD值正相关,且同样的工业投资会导致西部地区工业结构不合理程度更严重。(3)我国各地区工业结构的高级化程度GJH值普遍呈上升趋势,即各地区工业结构的高级化程度不断提高。与东部地区相比,中、西部地区工业结构的高级化程度仍然较低。(4)工业投资与工业结构GJH值显著正相关,即工业投资的增加有利于工业结构高级化程度的提高;而从地区角度看,只有中部地区的工业投资与工业结构GJH值显著正相关,东部和西部地区不相关。By introducing control variables and based on the panel fixed effect model,this paper focuses on the dynamic changes of industrial investment on industrial structure optimization since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008.The study shows:(1)The ISD value of industrial structure deviation degree in various regions of China is on the rise,which indicates that the unreasonable degree of industrial structure in various regions of China is increasing.Compared with the eastern region,the industrial structure of the central and western regions are more unreasonable.(2)The industrial investment is positively correlated with the ISD value of industrial structure,that is,the increase of industrial investment will lead to the unreasonableness of industrial structure.From the regional point of view,industrial investment is positively correlated with the ISD value of industrial structure,and the same industrial investment will lead to more unreasonable industrial structure in the western region(.3)The GJH value of industrial structure in different regions of China is on the rise,that is to say,the degree of upgrading of industrial structure in different regions is increasing.Compared with the eastern region,the degree of upgrading of industrial structure of the central and western regions are still relatively low.(4)The industrial investment is positively correlated with the GJH value of industrial structure,that is,the increase of industrial investment is beneficial to the improvement of the degree of upgrading of industrial structure.From the regional point of view,only the industrial investment in the central region is significantly positively correlated with the GJH value of industrial structure,but not in the eastern and western regions.

关 键 词：工业投资 工业结构 合理化 高级化 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]