基于环流和海温的稻曲病指数长期预报模型研究  

Long-term prediction models based on atmospheric circulation and SST for the rice false smut index in Jiangsu rice area

作　　者：刘文菁[1] 徐敏[1] 徐经纬[2] 任义方[1] LIU Wenjing;XU Min;XU Jingwei;REN Yifang(Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210008,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center oo Forecast and Evaluation oo Meteorological Disasters/Center for Data Assimildtion Research and Application,Nanjing University ooInformation Sciences&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象局,南京210008 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/资料同化研究与应用中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2018年第5期659-665,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306035);江苏省气象局科研基金(KM201707)

摘　　要：稻曲病属于典型的"气象型"病害,为了提前预报出适宜稻曲病发生的气象等级与提供足够的防治准备时间,根据中长期天气预报原理,充分考虑大气环流和太平洋海温对区域气象条件影响的滞后性,利用近40 a的江苏逐日气象观测资料、大气环流指数和海温资料,采用空间拓扑原理和最优相关普查等统计方法,挑选出了对综合稻曲病指数影响最显著的预报因子,并通过滑动平均和主成分识别等检验方法确保预报因子的稳定性和独立性,最终分别建立了基于大气环流因子和基于海温因子的综合稻曲病指数长期预报模型。经过检验,两种模型的模拟效果均理想,能提前一个月预报出综合稻曲病指数以及对应的发病气象等级。Rice false smut is a typical weather disease.In order to predict the degree of meteorological grade of rice false smut happened in advance accurately and provide enough preparation time for prevention,this study was made.The hysteresis of atmospheric circulation and Pacific Sea Surface Temperature"SST)on regional meteorological conditions was fully considered according to the mid-and-long-term weather forecast principle,and the data of SST,atmospheric circulation indices and daily observation was analyzed.Two long-term prediction models of meteorological grade of rice false smut were establislied based on the atmosj^heric circulation factors and based on SST factors by the optimal correlation and spatial topological analysis technology and the predictors with the most significant influence on the rice false smut index.In addition,the statistical methods,such as moving average and principal component,were used for the forecast factor having stability and independence to the comprehensive index of rice false smut.Furthermore,through the historical fitting and forecast testing,the results of t!ie two prediction models are reasonabl.The rice false smut index and the corresponding metorological grade could be predicted by the models at least one month in advanc.

关 键 词：水稻稻曲病指数 预报模型 海温 大气环流 

分 类 号：P461.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]