基于对称性的委内瑞拉及周边地区M_W≥6.0地震趋势判断及与地球自转关系分析  

Forecasts of M_W≥6.0 Earthquake Tendency in Venezuela and Surrounding Areas Based on the Symmetry Principle and its Relationship with the Earth Rotation

作　　者：孟庆彬 延军平 芦佳玉 MENG Qingbin;YAN Junping;LU Jiayu(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2018年第5期1061-1067,共7页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41171090);国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD094)

摘　　要：在全球化的大背景下,重大自然灾害发生的频率不断加快,其危害对人们的生产生活造成了严重的威胁。地震灾害是重大自然灾害之一,发生的频率虽然不高,但造成的人员伤亡和经济损失十分巨大。对地震进行趋势判断,其理论和现实意义重大。文章运用三元、四元、五元可公度计算来预测委内瑞拉及周边地区近30多年M_W≥6.0地震信号的强弱,利用蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系加强对时间对称性的分析,再通过震源的经纬度迁移和空间迁移规律,本文创造性地分析了该地地震与地球自转加速度的关系。结果得出:(1)委内瑞拉及周边地区发生M_W≥6.0地震的时间上在2018年信号最强,2017和2019年较强。(2)空间上在10°N—11°N,63°W—65°W之间地震可能性最强。(3)委内瑞拉及其周边地区M_W≥6.0地震与地球自转速度的转折变化有密切关系,未来可通过其变化规律帮助分析地震发生趋势。本文可为地震灾害的趋势判断研究提供一定的参考,为后续研究工作带来一些启示。In this era of globalization,the continuous increase in the frequency of major natural disasters seriously threatens production and lives.Although the frequency of earthquakes,which are major natural disasters,is relatively low,earthquakes result in great economic losses and casualties;hence,it is very important to practically and theoretically forecast earthquake tendencies.In this paper,ternary,quaternary,and pentanary commensurability calculations are used to predict the intensity of seismic signals of M W≥6.0 earthquakes in Venezuela and surrounding areas for approximately 30 years,and then the butterfly structure diagram and commensurability structure are used to strengthen the time symmetry analysis.Based on the laws of longitudinal and latitudinal migration and space migration of seismic sources,the relationship between the earthquake and the acceleration of the earth rotation is creatively analyzed.It is concluded that(1)in the study area,the strongest signal of M W≥6.0 earthquakes is in 2018,and relatively strong signals are in 2017 and 2019;(2)M W≥6.0 earthquakes are likely to occur in 10°-11°N and 63°-65°W;(3)the M W≥6.0 earthquakes in Venezuela and its surrounding areas have a close relationship with changes in the earth rotation speed.This research can serve as a reference for analyses of earthquakes tendency forecast and provide some insights for future research.

关 键 词：可公度 时空对称性 蝴蝶结构图 地球自转 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]