采用预报涡旋的初始化方案对2015年台风“莲花”、“灿鸿”的试验研究  

AN INITIALIZATION SCHEME USING FORECAST VORTEXES AND ITS APPLICATION IN SIMULATION OF TYPHOONS LINFA AND CHAN-HOM IN 2015

作　　者：黄燕燕[1] 薛纪善[1,2] 冯业荣[1] 陈子通[1] 张诚忠[1] 李梦婕[1] 李霁杭 HUANG Yan-yan;XUE Ji-shan;FENG Ye-rong;CHEN Zi-tong;ZHANG Cheng-zhong;LI Meng-jie;LI Ji-hang(Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,CMA,Guangzhou,510640,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广东广州510640 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害性天气国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2018年第5期598-609,共12页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41705089;41675099);广东省科技计划项目(20160402002;2017B020218003;2017A020219005)共同资助

摘　　要：提出了一种采用预报涡旋的初始化方案,用预报涡旋代替bogus模型参与构建模式初始场,采用权重形式合成预报涡旋和分析涡旋获取台风初始涡旋。针对2015年"莲花"和"灿鸿"台风,基于该初始化方案设计了一系列对比试验进行数值模拟,并对结果进行分析。结果表明:(1)该方案得到的台风初始涡旋结构比bogus模型合理;(2)预报涡旋权重不宜取太大;(3)从长时效预报效果看,采用24 h内预报涡旋比采用长时效预报涡旋台风的路径和强度误差减小;(4)采用同一权重方案对"莲花"、"灿鸿"预报的改进效果不同,其原因与预报涡旋和分析涡旋的协调程度有关。多台风情形下可在初步评估的基础上采用不同时效的预报涡旋和不同权重方案。In this paper,we propose an initialization scheme using a forecast vortex instead of a bogus model to construct the initial vortex of a typhoon.The forecast vortex and the analyzed vortex are composed to obtain the initial vortex of the typhoon by the method of weighting.A series of comparative experiments based on this initialization scheme were designed for numerical simulation of the typhoons Linfa and Chan-hom in 2015,and the results were analyzed.We come to the conclusions as follows:(1)The structure of the initial vortex obtained by this scheme is more reasonable than that of the bogus model;(2)The weight of the forecast vortex should not be too large to avoid big in-harmony;(3)Compared with the scheme using 36-hour and 48-hour forecast vortexes,the one using forecast vortexes within 24 hours is able to construct initial vortexes with reduced errors in typhoon track and intensity;(4)The improvement in forecasts of Linfa and Chan-hom is different though using the same weight scheme,due to the coordination between the forecast vortex used and the analyzed vortex related.In the case of multiple typhoons,vortex initialization can be done using different forecast vortexes and weight schemes based on assessment.

关 键 词：涡旋初始化 预报涡旋 合成方法 南海台风模式 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]